My Ideal (Yet Realistic) Watford Summer Transfer Window 

Watford currently find themselves in a very familiar situation: a sacked manager to the dismay of many fans, a disappointing end to the season, and significant concern about whether the squad will be “good enough” next season. 

I think a majority of Watford fans would agree Tom Cleverley overachieved with Watford this past season, especially at the start. Some may disagree and believe sacking him was the right decision, and I understand (albeit not concur with) why people think so. It truly was a tale of two seasons: At the campaign’s halfway point, Watford sat in the playoff places. In the final 23 matches of the season, Watford were dead last in the form table. Some may attribute this to Cleverley not adapting to his conditions, complacency, or myriad other reasons. I believe that while there was for sure room to improve, the majority of the fault falls on the ownership for a January transfer window that neglected to address Watford’s pressing need for attacking-minded reinforcements. Either way, Cleverley is gone, Paulo Pezzolano has arrived, and the point of this article is to illustrate my ideal – yet realistic – summer transfer window. Pezzolano seems an exciting appointment – having achieved promotion in multiple countries including Spain last season – but I feel the necessary signings are the same regardless of who is currently in charge.  

I first need to establish the following assumptions: 

  1. Transfer expenditures similar to last season’s. Since relegation, Watford’s transfer expenditure has steadily declined, regardless of player sales. Transfermarkt suggests Watford spent roughly three million euros on transfer fees this past season, so this will be the ballpark estimate for how much Watford will spend this upcoming campaign. With the debt situation still far from resolved, the current ownership – as much as it pains me to say this – needs to be frugal. 
  2. Imran Louza and Giorgi Chakvetadze depart, but Kwadwo Baah stays. Ahead of the 2024/25 campaign, Watford made ~30 million euros from transfer sales. Sales of Louza and Chakvetadze should be able to get Watford close to this sum yet again. I hope both stay, but player sales have always been a significant revenue source for Watford and I cannot foresee the ownership passing up on the opportunity to cash in when near-inevitable offers come knocking. While Baah is certainly going to have suitors if he seeks to leave, the Hornets seem to view Baah as untouchable. Considering Baah’s recent injury history, other teams may be a bit wary about signing Baah while Watford’s hierarchy will likely feel selling now will leave lots of potential profit on the table. 
  3. Free transfers and loans will be the main source of arrivals. While I of course would like to see Watford splash the cash, I am trying to be realistic here. Even though I would not be shocked to see expenditures notably above the 3 million figure I previously mentioned as the ownership may back Pezzolano more heavily than they did Cleverley, I do not think eight-figure spending is a fair assumption. I hope to be proven wrong. 

The Championship can be an outrageously unpredictable league. While supporters can always hope for promotion, relegation can sneak up out of nowhere – just ask the team up the M1 who allegedly assembled a “Championship super team” a couple of years ago. I think a fair expectation is for Watford to assemble a team that can potentially make a push up the table but, more importantly, is able to improve on the relegation form that recently swept over the team. 

My Ideal – and Realistic – Transfer Window Hopes

Goalkeeper

I think many Watford fans were skeptical of whether Egil Selvik would solve Watford’s goalkeeping issues at first as any Udinese signing raises question marks. Fortunately, the Hornets’ dealings with Udinese in the January transfer window worked out. Selvik is a more-than-capable Championship goalkeeper. Beyond passing the eye test, the statistics proved Selvik thrived: in 16 matches, he conceded 5.4 fewer goals than expected. 

The backup situation remains to be seen following Jonathan Bond’s departure. If Daniel Bachmann elects to stay at Vicarage Road, then not even a second option will need to be signed. Even if he does depart, Myles Roberts may get the job done as a backup after showing promising development during his first loan this past season. Regardless, a serviceable backup can very likely be found on a free transfer if necessary, with rumors suggesting Watford are interested in signing Bolton’s Nathan Baxter when his contract expires this summer. 

Defense

Watford cannot afford to make the same mistake of aiming for free transfers that see players at the end of their careers arrive on presumably hefty contracts, as happened with Angelo Ogbonna. He featured just eight times. Free transfers with pricey wage demands are not as preferable as – and financially equivalent to – spending a little bit of money on a prospect who demands much lower wages. Kevin Keben showed promise when fit. Mattie Pollock has room to improve but gets the job done in the Championship and seems to be a great leader. If Watford are able to keep hold of James Abankwah for another year, with reports suggesting this is a real possibility, then Watford’s center-back situation leaves the squad with a promising young core. With Ryan Porteous set to come back from his loan to Preston North End, Watford would only need one or two more center-backs to come through the door. While an experienced option would be nice, pricy starters are not needed – a potentially expensive contract like Ogbonna’s should be avoided. Loans and free transfers should be focused on. But, rumors link 23-year-old Jamil Siebert with a potential move to Vicarage Road, so if the ownership is willing to spend, Watford would have one of the better defensive backbones in the division.

Regarding full-backs, Caleb Wiley is also reportedly in talks to have his loan extended one more season, and he would be an unquestionable starter down the left side if the extension comes to fruition. On the right, while some may disagree, I feel Jeremy Ngakia significantly improved this past season and solidified himself as a capable Championship starter. James Morris and Ryan Andrews provide decent backup options, but a free transfer or loan for a full-back who can play on both sides would put Watford in a much more comfortable position. Perhaps Joao Ferreira will return (assuming he is still under contract at Watford, though that is never a certainty considering how frequently players move between Watford and Udinese without an official announcement).

Again, while I wish Watford would spend loads in the transfer window revamping the entire lineup, I want to be realistic and acknowledge that when an area of the squad is good enough, it is unlikely to be highlighted by the current hierarchy as room for notable investment apart from a couple of no-fee transfers. 

Summary: re-sign Abankwah and Wiley, bring in one or two center-backs on free transfers or loans (experience is a plus considering the relative youth of the defense), and sign one more versatile full-back option (can be on loan or free transfer). 

Midfield

While I find the defense to not be a major cause for concern and thus I am not too worried if the ownership is “cheap” there when it comes to recruitment, the midfield is a different story. With Louza and Chakvetadze’s departures seemingly inevitable, a massive midfield gap will emerge, both in terms of creativity and reliability. Moussa Sissoko and Edo Kayembe actually had decent success in front of the net this past season, but their best performances came when they were pushed out of their natural midfield positions. This cannot be relied on in the upcoming campaign. Moreover, as was the case with Tom Dele-Bashiru as well, there was tremendous inconsistency in their performances. Unfortunately for Dele-Bashiru, his injury history, including in this past season, has not helped him significantly build on the promising form he displayed when he first broke into the Watford squad a few years ago. While I expect all three of them to stay – and they can certainly put in valuable shifts as rotation players – much more will be needed to fill the void left by the inevitable departures. Pierre Dwomoh, only 20 years old, was injured during the heart of the season, but hopefully, a full offseason will help him get fully up to speed and build on his limited Championship experience from this past season.

A central midfield of Sissoko, Kayembe, Dele-Bashiru, and Dwomoh is not enough. Starters and depth are needed. In my opinion, the most obvious move Watford should try and make is a free transfer for Hector Kyprianou. Watford have allegedly targeted him in multiple transfer windows (including this past January), so the fact the 23-year-old is available as a free agent makes signing him feel like a no-brainer. With 113 League One appearances under his belt and having captained Peterborough to lifting the EFL Trophy following a remarkable triumph against Birmingham City – with Kyprianou scoring a remarkable goal in the process – he has proven himself both as a leader and as a prime candidate for a player ready to take the step up to the Championship. Peterborough preferring to keep him until the end of his contract when they knew they could not recoup any money for his services shows the type of value Kyprianou provides. Whether he would be a certain starter or rotation player is unclear, but signing him seems like an obvious move that would at least answer the reliability question facing the center of the pitch. If I posted this article yesterday, I might have appeared more prophetic, but rumors claim Kyprianou to Watford is already a done deal. Rumors often do not pan out, but I am hopeful, all things considered, that Watford will indeed announce this move upon the official expiry of his contract.

Even if the four midfielders I assumed stay do in fact stay and Kyprianou arrives, the creative-midfielder role still needs to be addressed. While, as mentioned, Kayembe performed well on the goalscoring front when put in the more attacking positions, this often was at the cost of sacrificing defensive duties. While not a bad backup option to have, Watford will need someone with superior dribbling, a keen eye to find attackers, and better knowledge of how to balance offensive and defensive duties. I have not yet suggested Watford sign a player from Udinese, and it is not a true Watford transfer window prediction without at least one sister-club arrival. So, assuming Watford keep up this trend, I hope one of the names they are looking at is Simone Pafundi. Entering the final year of his Udinese contract, the 19-year-old did not make a major impact at Udinese this past season despite impressing in the Swiss Super League when out on loan the prior campaign. Boasting a robust youth international career for Italy and even debuting for the Azzurri’s senior side at just 16 years old, extending his contract to 2027 and sending him on loan to Watford would provide the perfect opportunity to boost his value to help Udinese in the future and benefit the Hornets in the present. All of this is extremely speculative and contains many ifs, but this is a move I would like to see happen and think makes sense for all parties. 

I am likely being too optimistic and thus violating my rule of trying to be realistic, but I nonetheless think this is an ideal position for Watford to loan in a promising young player from a first-tier club. Talented attacking midfielders often cost a premium, so a loan for a prospect, whether from Udinese or a Premier League side, would provide Watford a cost-effective option with high potential upside. Watford have been linked with a move for Catalin Cirjan from Romanian side FC Dinamo following a successful first season after his transfer away from Arsenal’s U21s. His profile (recently on a Big Six team) and attacking mindset match the type of player I hope Watford target.  

Summary: sign Kyprianou or a similar player on a free or low-cost transfer, loan in an attacking-minded midfielder from a first-tier club, or be prepared to spend (an exciting talent like Cirjan should do the trick).   

Attack

For the other positions, I tried my best not to break my assumptions, hence why I tried to avoid putting forward transfer ideas that required proper fees. That is intentional. While Watford will hopefully spend notably more than the three million euros I previously mentioned on transfer fees, if spending is to be capped, then all of that spending needs to go towards a striker. I think most Watford fans would agree a proper striker is the number one need. Vakoun Bayo was Watford’s top scorer with 10 goals, and he will not be at Vicarage Road next season. Kayembe and Sissoko were second and third with eight and six goals respectively. Mileta Rajovic is returning from loan, but most Watford fans would agree he is not the immediate answer to the goalscoring problem. I felt he got a bit more criticism than he deserved while at Vicarage Road the first time around, but he seemed to be better used as a super-sub rather than a consistent starter prior to his loan. 

This is not to say Watford’s attack does not have some promising aspects. If I am correct about Baah staying, that would be a huge boost: the Hornets played significantly better when he was on the pitch than when he was injured. He has that get-out-of-your-seat factor only a few players in the Championship have. With remarkable dribbling skills, tremendous speed, and a good final ball that will only improve, a reliable center-forward could very easily see Baah accumulate double-digit assist tallies in the upcoming campaign. With a powerful shot and eye for the back of the net, more experience will see him notably increase his goal tally too (potentially double-digit as well – he scored four Championship goals this past season despite only playing 35% of possible Championship minutes). 

Rocco Vata and Mamadou Doumbia are also promising young talents who I expect to notably improve next season. Vata showed he is a threat to score from anywhere and may even be able to help solve Watford’s creativity gap in the midfield depending on Pezzolano’s demands. Doumbia, just 19 years old and with lots of unknowns when initially signed, displayed he has the makings of a well-rounded center-forward. He should get considerable playing time, but he cannot be expected to score ~15 goals next season. 21-year-old Jorge Hurtado is set to return from his loan to the Greek second tier where he scored 11 times in 20 matches, but previous unsuccessful loans in League Two and the MLS suggest he is not yet in a position to play a major role next season. 

Thus, Watford desperately need a center-forward if they want to avert the form that haunted them in the second half of the past campaign. Whether it be Pezzolano or the best manager in the world, improving form dramatically without a new striker would be a near-impossible task. One name that comes to mind as a fitting signing – who would also be economically sound – is Brenner from Udinese. Yes, another Udinese player. Rumors linked him with a move to Columbus Crew (the same club Cucho Hernandez was sold to, so it makes sense as the Pozzos already have a relationship with the MLS side), but so far, nothing has materialized. Having paid in the range of eight figures for his services, the Pozzos may want to keep him in their system a bit longer. He has not found success in Italy, but having watched him play in the MLS, he fits the bill for a lot of what Watford would be looking for. With 18 goals and 6 assists in 29 regular season appearances in his most recent full MLS campaign, Brenner definitely has what it takes to thrive in the Championship. Unfortunately, he may be a bit too good to want to join. Nonetheless, he would be my ideal signing (and potentially allow funds to be used elsewhere).

More realistically, there is no one Udinese would be willing to provide who would want to join Watford or be beneficial to Watford in front of the net. So, whatever funds are available need to be spent. After spending a couple of months in the Czech Republic, players such as Prince Adu (Vydra’s teammate at Viktoria Plzen) or Slavia Prague’s Tomas Chory strike me as players who fit the price target and could make for intriguing signings. While Watford might not have any interest in the Czech market, I think Watford need to at least prioritize someone with goals to their name in the past season rather than speculate on a loanee from a Big Six team. As nice as it would be to uncover a hidden gem for a bargain like Vata, that cannot be relied on. Spend the money on as much of a guarantee as possible, which is obviously easier said than done, but not spending at all will certainly minimize chances of success.

If Watford are somehow able to loan in a player like Brenner – a proven goal scorer who just needs a change of scenery – then the money should be spent on a wide player (or creative midfielder as already discussed). As mentioned, Baah’s injury made Watford’s threat from wide positions nearly non-existent. Vata can play out wide as a true winger but is often more effective from central positions. Otherwise, the only other winger Watford have under contract is Tom Ince. Clearly, at least one more signing is needed. A loan for a youngster from a major club makes a bit more sense for this position as it is not as detrimental to Watford if the loan does not pan out. An experienced wide signing would also be ideal, both for depth and ensuring there is not too much reliance on youth. 25-year-old winger Dennis Politic of FC Dinamo was also mentioned as a potential transfer target, and having played in England in the past, he could potentially be a useful, yet cheap, acquisition.  

Summary: spend money on a center-forward, loan in a wing-capable prospect, and bring in one more experienced attacker for free or a small fee. 

I know the transfer window is complex and my assumptions may quickly be proven wrong. I know that most of my predictions, if not all, may not come true as I do not have a crystal ball, I do not know what goes on behind the scenes, and I have no idea what the true finances look like – none of us do (the Swiss Ramble can provide a good idea but cannot consider all of the ownership’s many accounts). While Watford hopefully land a billion-dollar advertising deal tomorrow, the reality is it would be overly optimistic to expect spending trends notably different from last year. While keeping sight of the practicalities of how the transfer window will be approached, I just hope the manager is listened to and the ownership does not insist on placing too much pressure on the youth. Whether it be in the academy or certain first-team members last season, Watford have no shortage of talented young players, but too much pressure and reliance on too thin of a squad would be harmful to both their development and Watford’s success. A team that is one injury away from devastation makes for a prime relegation candidate in next year’s Championship.

Watford’s Not-So-Cleverley Calculated Approach – Cause for Concern 

With eight matches left in the Championship campaign, Watford are significantly worse off than any team that spent six of the last nine seasons in the Premier League should be. Heading into the festive period, Watford had looked as if they may have found enough of an identity to make a push for a playoff position. Instead, the managerial carousel has spun once more, with Tom Cleverley now in charge. 

The aim for the rest of the season is simple: avoid relegation. Although the alarm bells might not be loudly ringing following a scrappy victory in Cleverley’s senior managerial debut, the nine-point cushion from the bottom three could still evaporate; the Hornets’ 2019/20 relegation campaign proved how important, yet fragile, every point is. That is not to say this season has been a complete failure. For example, 19-year-old Ryan Andrews has solidified his position as a potential long-term starter. Maybe Cleverley will prove to be a viable permanent manager in the next few weeks. Nonetheless, as more matches have been played, the positives from this season have become harder to find. Since January 14th, Watford’s only league wins (in 11 matches) came against Rotherham, who are thoroughly alone at the bottom of the table, and recently against Birmingham City, who sit 21st. 

Valerien Ismael may not have been the problem at Vicarage Road this year, but his questionable substitutions and unwillingness to change tactics to suit a team that is not built for playing out of the back proved he is not the solution either. At the same time, the tools he was given were nowhere near enough to work with for season-long success. 

The signing of Mileta Rajovic is a necessary starting point for discussing the questionable player recruitment this past season. With nine Championship goals to his name, averaging one goal every 188 minutes, his output makes for respectable reading. Unfortunately, Watford need more than just someone who can get on the end of a cross: Rajovic ranks near the bottom of Championship strikers for shot-creating actions, touches in the attacking third, successful take-ons, and many other statistics not focused solely on putting the ball in the back of the net. While many Watford supporters seem to give him harsh treatment, some of their frustration is understandable. With only two goals in his last 19 league matches (though not all of them were starts) and little success in terms of creating chances for others, the reported 1.3 million pound transfer fee may have been better allocated elsewhere. 

As has been the case with many of Watford’s new arrivals this season, they may be “good enough” for the Championship level, but not many — if any —  were ever going to propel the Hornets forward. For a team so recently in the Premier League, fans should expect signings to still be somewhat progressive. Having recouped around 50 million pounds this offseason in transfer fees, player reinvestment of around 4 million pounds is inadequate. The previous season saw a similar story of significant funds from player sales being used primarily for purposes other than replenishing the squad. Of course, relegation from the Premier League is going to lead to financial constraints that call for other uses of the money from player sales (as reported by the Watford observer in December, the Hornets have around 25 million pounds of debt they are aiming to pay off by this summer). Still, the severe lack of reinvestment in the transfer market raises some concerns about how the Club is being managed. The approach in the transfer market has clearly been to look for players requiring minimal fees – such as Tom Ince coming in for 50,000 pounds – or no fee at all. Giorgi Chakvetadze is the only exception, commanding a fee of just over 2 million pounds when the Hornets made his loan deal permanent. 

The approach to the transfer market resulted in a squad devoid of the proper talent and depth required by Ismael. For instance, although Tom Dele-Bashiru has shown flashes of talent and worthiness to start in the Championship, the midfielder should not have to so frequently play right back. While signing Emmanuel Dennis on loan was exciting regardless of if it took him a few matches to get up to speed, he should not have been the only player to arrive in January. Although Jamal Lewis has extensive Premier League and Championship experience, he has frequently been caught too high out of position and has not been the player that once deservedly required an eight-figure fee. 

Especially once Watford’s few bright spots inevitably depart this season, namely Barcelona-linked Yaser Asprilla, the need for many new signings – optimally upgrades – will be further crystalized. 

One area under close watch must be between the sticks. The goalkeeper situation at Vicarage Road has been unstable since Ben Foster’s decline and eventual departure. In the summer of 2021, Watford reportedly turned down 15 million pounds for Daniel Bachmann’s services. This season, until his recent restoration to the starting lineup, he was benched for Ben Hamer, who likely signed for Watford expecting to be the reserve keeper as he prepared for retirement. Hamer has performed above expectations, letting in 0.9 fewer goals than expected in 19 league matches. In Bachmann’s 19 matches, he has conceded 1.7 more goals than expected. While there are other metrics to consider when evaluating a goalkeeper, many Watford fans would agree that Hamer has been the slightly superior performer. Considering Bachmann has been on the receiving end of some nasty comments pertaining to things beyond just on-field performance and may thus want to leave, and Hamer’s contract expires in the summer as he approaches his 37th birthday, a new goalkeeper is likely needed at Vicarage Road. Similar dynamics can be found in many other positions in the current squad.

There were matches this season where the squad undeniably showed tremendous heart, and earlier on in the season, it seemed an identity was being forged. Regardless, the results have been nowhere near good enough, and continuing this trend into next season will see Watford firmly in a relegation scrap. While Cleverley’s first match in charge resulted in three points, the brand of football cannot yet be deemed as having been “significantly improved.”  

While most fans understandably call for a change in ownership, that cannot be the sole solution on which people rely. It is up to the Club hierarchy to change its approach completely. It is the minimum the loyal fans deserve. During the 2010s, the Gino Pozzo approach was not broken, so there was no reason to fix it. Even after the first relegation, it was arguable that the ideology was still to be trusted. But now, there is no doubt in the supporters’ minds — and this should be the view of Club leadership too — that a lot needs changing, and fast. The system is broken. 

Success for Watford both this season and next season is not defined by promotion: it is defined by establishing a positive trajectory, something that has been lacking for the past three seasons. 

Hopefully Cleverley provides many answers, but there is no doubt that something more has to change.

What Is On-Pitch Success For Watford This Season?

Out went Rob Edwards. That was the final straw for most supporters. No matter who came in, even if it was the highly-rated Slaven Bilic, “Pozzo Out” would be on many people’s lips. Trust had once more been broken between the hierarchy and the supporters. Bilic has now lost more league matches than Edwards did in five fewer matches, so it is not as if the new head coach’s first impression has worked wonders or changed anyone’s opinions. 

This would be an absurdly long article if the discussion were focused on the ownership. That was the last article’s responsibility, so it is time to move away from focusing on that for once to reset the on-pitch expectations. Of course, the success of the club is significantly influenced by the hierarchy, but now that Bilic (or whoever the head coach is going to be soon) has his tools for the season, the focus is turned to the players. 

Unfortunately, the on-field issues have not made for impressive reading either. The Hornets sit 15th after 15 matches on 20 points, just 6 points above the relegation zone, and 7 away from the automatic promotion positions. With 19 goals scored and 20 conceded, neither the attack nor defense have been spectacular. In fact, 20 conceded is an astonishingly low, misleading number considering how porous the team has looked in defense. The attack looks prolific in some matches, with, when fit, Joao Pedro looking like one of the best players in the league, Yaser Asprilla showing tremendous promise, Ismaila Sarr’s ever-present threat, Ken Sema in fine form, Vakoun Bayo seeming like a solid signing, and Keinan Davis picking up from where he left off with Nottingham Forest. Samuel Kalu looked decent in his recent cameo against Millwall as well. There are still times, however, when the forward line has been wasteful. The issues, nonetheless, stem from the mostly non-existent midfield and defense.

Edo Kayembe has not proven himself as a consistent midfielder. Oftentimes, especially when building up from the back, he appears to shy away from the passing lanes, encouraging pressure from the opposition. Hamza Choudhury looks like a solid acquisition, with his defensive prowess looking stronger than most in the back-line (which, to be fair, does not say much). Having both Kayembe and Choudhury in a midfield of three, however, is begging for the team to be two separate, incohesive units. Davis too often has to rely on center-backs to play long balls forward to even stand a chance at getting touches, as the service to the front line sparsely comes from the midfield. 

When Imran Louza returned from injury, Watford looked like a cohesive, formidable, creative unit. He dictated the tempo of play. Coming off looking distressed against Millwall, there is a chance he is once more out for a prolonged period. When everyone is available, the midfield should have just enough depth to play at a sufficient level for the second tier. Right now, as has been the case all season, that availability is not a reality, and the midfield is near non-existent as a result. It is too dependent on Louza.

The defense is not hard to analyze. It has to be considered one of the league’s worst defenses. Regardless of the names on the team and their experience, the performances have been awful. Too many goals have been yielded by defenders simply not tracking their man or literally just watching the player shoot from one meter away (with multiple examples of each already provided this season).

The Club had the Championship’s best defensive record two seasons ago, so the hierarchy ignored the deeper statistics (and the eye test) which showed the defense was nowhere near as good as the goals-against column said. Thus, in the Premier League, the back-line conceded more than twice per match, on average, and did not keep their first clean sheet until February. Relegation came, and with the exception of Kourtney Hause, who has been injured for most of the time since his arrival, no defensive reinforcements came in. Mario Gaspar was a tremendous downgrade from Kiko Femenia and an appalling signing when Ethan Laird was thought to be nearing a move to Vicarage Road. Hassane Kamara has been forced to play right-back for most of the season. He simply is not meant to be a right-back and is nowhere comparable to the player he is in his natural position. Dan Gosling, a midfielder, is now playing right-back in order to allow Kamara to play on his preferred side. 

For a club that has spent nearly half-a-billion pounds in the past 10 years, to have to end a league match with a defense of two league debutants who had never played at a higher level, a left-back on the right side, and a center-back who is in the worst form he has been in since joining (in conjunction with the subsequent use of Gosling as a right-back replacement) is atrocious and a signal of neglectful investment. 

Many names in Watford’s attack stand out as players “good enough” for a push at the top 6. Louza in the midfield is notably talented (of course, only relevant when he is available), and Choudhury paired with him may be suited for a promotion charge. Kamara on his preferred side of defense can be Premier League level, though the defense as a whole – and a Louza-less midfield – have been playing at a League One level – with that likely considered generous by some. 

So, with an exciting attack that still sometimes lacks end product, an underwhelming midfield with its key piece missing for the next month, and a near-comical defense, what can Watford consider success? Based on performances alone this season, the only feasible goal would be squeaking out a promotion playoff spot. The automatic promotion spots are already further away than the relegation zone. The automatic promotion spot places are hard to predict, as the middle of the table is usually packed and the final spots are not decided until the final day. 

Even then, with all the variability in the league and the top teams not being overwhelming either, thinking about automatic promotion is still overly optimistic. Watford have not looked like one of the six best teams in the Championship. Not even a top-10 team. 15th in the table fairly reflects how the team has performed. Of course, it is still early in the season. With 31 matches left, anything can happen: there is still enough time for the top of the table to end at the bottom and vice versa. So, as tumultuous of a ride as the start of the season has been, it must not be forgotten that, at least until after the World Cup, time is not too much of the essence. With 25 matches after the World Cup interval, there is a natural break to the season. Points at the start of the season are worth just as much as points at the end, but at least now, there is time to turn the ship’s course for that second half of the season. 

Then again, the conversation about the hierarchy cannot be ignored here, as changing course requires them to take firm action – and different action from their usual philosophies. Trusting that that will happen, unfortunately, is, well, silly. All that can be hoped for is that the coach – whether it be Bilic or whoever – can get a response out of the players for the final run-in to accumulate as many points as possible. And, if at the end of the season, the Hornets finish in the top 6, then the season has been a remarkable success considering how it has started. Top 10, even if underwhelming considering expectations before the first match, would signal improvement from their current calamitous state. Promotion, if that is a miracle allowed to be thought of with this squad, would have to be considered the Club’s biggest accomplishment since Gino Pozzo took ownership. Of course, the goal remains promotion, but the high expectations for “success” must be lessened. 

The following question, regardless of if this article is intended to be about the squad itself, cannot be ignored: Does on-pitch success this season really matter if the same patterns are going to follow the Club because of inept ownership? The answer is for the individual fan to decide. 

Watford Football Club: An Inept Hierarchy Versus All

The world moves in mysterious ways. The world of football, especially as a Watford supporter, is no exception. A bit over one year ago, Cucho Hernandez cut in on his right foot from the left flank to curl in a wondergoal just seconds into his debut. The sun beat down on the Golden Boys that day. Xisco Munoz was seeing the squad play beautiful football with a firm connection to the fans. After a blistering final stretch in the 2020/21 Championship campaign to secure automatic promotion at the first time of asking, the “feel-good factor” was well and truly back at Vicarage Road. 

Three – sorry, now four (I had to edit this in the process of writing the article) – head coaches and a reportedly sacked, then reinstated, sporting director later, the Hornets sit 10th in the Championship, nine points away from the top of the table after 10 matches. With Ismaila Sarr, Joao Pedro, and Hassane Kamara staying, it seemed as if the Hornets should still have that extra edge in quality. The attack, although far from prolific thus far, have had their fair share of bright sparks. Unfortunately, the midfield and defense have been Watford’s Achilles heel – especially the latter.

The backline is not good enough for the Championship. If Kortney Hause can stay fit, that will provide a huge boost. The other center-backs in what is usually a back three, however, have been frequently letting the team down via cheap loss of possession, laziness in defending, lack of awareness, etc. Watford have been conceding goals that promotion-chasing teams cannot be letting up. Daniel Bachmann has had to bail the defense out on numerous occasions. 

But surely, with all the profits from the transfers of Dennis, Kamara, Hernandez, Samir, and more, there would be some reinvestment in the defense, right? Nope. The cheap, last-ditch route was chosen. Again, Hause on loan is a shrewd signing, though that came out of a lack of other options. The pressing fault Gino Pozzo is at in the transfer window was the signing of Mario Gaspar. When initially signed, the experienced defender sounded like a name that could put in a solid shift. But on the pitch, especially as a wing-back, he does not at all seem like a player recruited for Rob Edwards’ system – not that that system matters anymore. He probably will not work in the new system either. Ethan Laird appeared likely to sign for the Hornets, and letting that deal slip through has already proved costly. Laird has had a stellar start to the season for QPR.

If it was not clearly put: the defensive squad building has been atrocious. And not just recently. It has been since Watford’s initial Premier League promotion under Gino. Kamara, for sure Watford’s best defender, was forced to play in a right-wing-back role for much of the start of the season. If your most valuable defender cannot even be played in his optimal position, the transfer method is reckless. 

In the 2016/17 campaign, Watford’s main not-on-loan center-backs were Sebastian Prodl, Craig Cathcart, Christian Kabasele, Miguel Britos, Younes Kaboul, and Adrian Mariappa. Two years later, in the Club’s second most successful season, the center-back department consisted of Prodl, Cathcart, Kabasele, Mariappa, Britos, and bright young talent Ben Wilmot. It is now the 2022/23 season, after another relegation, and Kabasele and Cathcart still are part of the rotation. Wilmot was transferred away a couple of seasons ago and a new youngster was brought in, but even when the veterans are underperforming, he too does not get a look in. 

Sheffield United splashed the cash to sign Anel Ahmedhodzic, a center-back who would have been perfect for Watford. Pozzo decided to go down the route of one late-window loan signing and just relaxing with who else did not leave. But it is not as if Pozzo did not want to spend any money. 5 million pounds were spent on striker Vakoun Bayo. However, later in the window, Rey Manaj joined for free from Barcelona and Keinan Davis (a very solid signing) joined on loan from Aston Villa. Why would 5 million pounds be spent on Bayo then, when other strikers were being brought in anyway, especially when it seemed like spending any money on fees would be a luxury? The attacking ranks, already with Sarr, Pedro, and Asprilla, seemed as if it would not require as much financial attention as the porous defense. This misallocation of funds all boils down to the agent Mogi Bayat issue, which is a story for another time (and not a good one).

The midfield also raises serious concerns about the approach – if there is one – to the squad building. Bringing in Edo Kayembe in January still does not seem as if it is a move that can reach a positive or negative conclusion. In some matches, he seems off the pace and untidy. Other times, he is the best player on the pitch, spinning around defenders and nearly being a reincarnation of Etienne Capoue for few-minute spells. The lack of consistency is still a concern, and his partnership with on-loan Hamza Choudhury is solid at best. Choudhury does provide a tenacity in defense and offers some relief for the back line, but in terms of attack, neither he nor Kayembe (with the exception of his spontaneous moments of genius) facilitates the best linking from defense to attack. Yaser Asprilla is frequently deployed in the attack midfield role to fill this shortcoming. His contribution to Keinan Davis’s goal against Sunderland is proof of his prodigal capabilities (a friendly reminder that he is 18 years old). 

The combination of Asprilla, Kayembe, and Choudhury, or sometimes Pedro dropping back in place of Asprilla, can work well enough at times. However, the apparent disjoint when trying to build up play from the back makes the team feel as if its attacking and defensive units are different teams altogether. The return of Imran Louza will hopefully solve more issues than one, as he is Watford’s best midfielder by a tremendous margin.

Perhaps the jigsaw of a squad is a byproduct of the defense being awful, but surely there are better midfielders that could have been brought in for cheap. And by “better,” this does not necessarily mean “more talented.” This is meant in terms of “better suited for Rob Edwards’ system.” But, of course, that previous sentence can be deleted. Initially, I thought the sacking was a joke. Yet, as per usual, the joke was the Club, as Watford were never going to properly back their head coach’s system, regardless of Scott Duxbury saying Edwards would be supported “come hell or high water.” Watford gave the “hell and high water” to Edwards and sacked him for it.

It seemed like some progress was going to be made through the removal of sporting director Cristiano Giaretta, but his rumored departure did not come to fruition. Thus, the only notable change made this season has been the removal of Edwards for Slaven Bilic. Admittedly, Bilic is not the worst of appointments, but at the expense of the rebuilding project fans were promised under Edwards is beyond unfair and untimely. 

“We felt Rob had enough time to show us the identity of his team, however performances haven’t reflected our hopes and ambitions,” claimed Pozzo in the sacking statement. This comes after just 10 league matches without the club’s best midfielder, a totally incapable defense with Hause only just being available for proper use, and a relatively young/inexperienced squad (in certain areas – obviously not the defense, though). Also, how does one establish a proper identity after fewer than a dozen matches? The only threat to “identity” at Watford, whenever there is any, is the ownership itself.

There is a reason Granada fans wanted the Pozzo family gone. Udinese fan protests reached levels unimaginable at Vicarage Road/in England before meaningful change was made. And now look at the disparities between the two clubs: the Italian side sit 3rd in Serie A with highly-respected sporting director Pierpaolo Marino having lots of control, while Giampaolo Pozzo sits in the back seat. Meanwhile, the Hornets have a blatant disjoint between ownership and those who actually matter on matchday. Giaretta’s most notable contribution at Watford has come via Instagram (if you know, you unfortunately know), Edwards did not have any transfer backing for his wants, and a return to the top flight is starting to feel like a distant prospect. The Club allowed to have an identity has prospered. Meanwhile, Watford sit as the family’s cash bag as the riches of even one Premier League season trumps the wealth accumulated in the Serie A manyfold. 

If Bilic turns the ship around and steers the Club back to the Premier League at the first time of asking, perhaps Gino will have redeemed himself. But even that is not enough. Watford supporters do need to be realistic, but that is understood: no one is demanding Gino makes Watford a consistent midtable Premier League team. Major silverware is still a dream all supporters have for maybe once in their lifetime, but again, no one is considering that a must. It is not as if fans are looking for Watford to be a powerhouse. They might not even be amongst the 20 biggest clubs in England (it depends on how much weight one puts on recency versus history). Fans just want to feel connected to the Club again. Without any identity, that is impossible to do. Edwards seemed to understand what was needed. He wanted to rebuild a connection with the fans. The brand of football he tried to implement was intense and would be easy to get behind if he did not inherit one of the league’s worst defenses. 

Edwards needed time – probably even more than a season – and that is okay. Success is not always what is most profitable at the moment. But again, immediate profit is what is being sought by the ownership. If Edwards was given multiple seasons to truly rebuild an identity at the Club, once promotion is then achieved, the prospects of a fruitful, longer Premier League stay significantly increase. If all resources are allocated to gunning for automatic promotion this season, that could have detrimental effects. If a Premier League return does not occur, which is starting to seem likely, then the season ends without a head coach, without many new funds, best players agitating to leave, and still, no identity is in place. If Bilic is to achieve promotion with the Hornets, herculean efforts would have to be made in the transfer window – with different approaches required by the ever-stubborn men in charge – to stand a fighting chance at safety. The likelihood is an immediate relegation would occur. And that leads back to square one, and there is still no identity. Just a bit of extra cash in the hierarchy’s pocket in the short term. If Edwards – or some other head coach – were truly backed and it took two or three years for promotion, but the time in the Championship allowed for a system/identity to develop, then the return to the top flight would have better chances at being successful. And regardless, there would then be a proven identity at Watford that could always be relied upon, yielding optimal results both financially and performance-wise. 

If the odds of promotion this season were highly in the Club’s favor if the trigger-happy approach is used (which is the approach once more in action), then an immediate return would admittedly be hard to spurn away. Unfortunately, the truth is that the squad just is not that good. The odds are no more in Watford’s favor this season under Bilic than they were under Edwards, though Edwards for sure had better odds at success in the much longer run if given the time. 

Some Watford supporters will tell you what is discussed here is just the tip of the iceberg with the current ownership. Others will say this is all nonsense and scold me for criticizing the person who saved us from Laurence Bassini. A few people will hopefully think this is spot on. Regardless of opinion, it is undeniable that these are not the best of days under the current regime at Watford. Times used to be much better, and thanks a lot for that, but the time to go – or undergo some miraculous soul change – has come. If the “identity (or lack thereof)” at the Club does not change, then its faces must. 

How Much Money Should Watford Seek for Emmanuel Dennis?

Relegation is not imminent, but the odds still say Watford are destined for their second Championship campaign in three seasons. Their placement in the English football hierarchy will determine the course of their summer transfer window: will there be star players arriving if safety is achieved or standouts departing if relegated? With the probability stating the latter situation is most likely, one name who will be on the top of other teams’ lists to swoop in for cheap will be one of the Premier League’s signings of the season, Emmanuel Dennis. 

Blistering Start to Premier League Life Sets Watford Up for Substantial Profit

After signing from Belgian-giants Club Brugge for a fee in the region of £4 million, it took Dennis no time to hit the ground running. He scored the Hornets’ first goal back in the top flight, proving he was a force to be reckoned with in his debut. 

The versatile forward thrives in both wide and central positions, able to create and score at impressive rates from both. Tallying up nine goals and five assists this season, the 24-year-old – who had once been prolific in Belgium before off-pitch drama derailed his 2020/21 campaign – has proven the move for his signature was more than shrewd. However, that prolific output offered at the start of the season has dried up.

13 of his goal contributions came in his first 16 league matches. Since the turn of the calendar year, he has only scored once in eleven outings. He still tremendously affects the run of play in many matches via his ball-carrying prowess and defensive duties, but the drought in creation and scoring is hard to ignore nonetheless. Between the form of Cucho Hernandez, Joao Pedro, and Ismaila Sarr, it would not be a shock to see Dennis relegated to the bench to be a super-sub, on occasion, rather than an unremovable starter, in the last nine matches.

Scoring 1.77 more goals than expected this season, it is safe to say Dennis is able to make the most of the chances he gets: his notable finishes against Chelsea, West Ham, and Aston Villa – when he seemingly flew over Ashley Young to win a header – shows how he can create danger out of half-chances. Even with his form drying up, there is every reason for other clubs to believe the somewhat dormant force will erupt with new surroundings. 

His creativity has been an overlooked quality by many, with his goal-scoring form (or lack thereof) capturing the attention of most. Amongst Premier League forwards this season, Dennis ranks in the top fifteen percent (FBREF) for successful dribbles, fouls drawn, and shots that led to a subsequent shot attempt per 90 minutes. He ranks in the top five percent for forwards with nutmegs per 90 minutes (everyone’s favorite statistic – averaging 0.70 per match), players dribbled past per 90 minutes (2.69), as well as dribbles completed per 90 minutes (2.40). 

Managers demanding high-intensity defending from their attacking ranks will most certainly be keeping a close eye on Dennis’ departure situation. Placing in the top seven percent (of the same category) for pressures in the defensive third, dribbles contested, and tackles in the defensive third, it is impossible to ignore the defensive work he offers.

What Is the Right Price?

Determining Dennis’ true transfer value this summer has numerous factors to consider. Through a post-COVID transfer window, the player’s form at the end of the season in comparison to the beginning, the Hornets’ league status, player desires, suitors, and more, it is hard to name the perfect price for most potential Watford departures. Regardless, the Hornets will be able to sell Dennis for a fee many times more than they bought him for.  

While at Club Brugge, Arsenal attempted swoops in consecutive summers for Dennis. In 2019, Arsenal reportedly saw a £12-million offer rejected. The following summer, a £15-million offer was turned down. The summer after is when Watford signed him for just a fraction of those sums. 

Thus, the base the Hornets should seek for his signature is in the £15-million range. Even if Watford lose leverage via relegation, the fact offers were coming in for him in the turbulent summer of 2020 for £15 million means at the bare minimum, the Hornets should not even consider any less. Even with his abysmal 2020/21 season, Dennis proving he has what it takes to thrive in the best domestic league in the world means he more than made up for the transfer value he lost. The hierarchy took a gamble when signing him, but the payoff for the risk has proven more than worth it, whether it be in the form of safety or much-needed finances post-relegation.

Both Odion Ighalo and Richarlison’s English-top-flight careers had a similar path at Vicarage Road: a swiftly successful start to life in the Premier League was followed by a barren run. Ighalo was sold for around £20 million and Richarlison for around £35 million. This is not to say Dennis is a direct comparison to those two (Ighalo was two years older than Dennis presently is and sold to a massively subsidized Changchun Yatai, whereas Richarlison was just 21-years-old sent to an overly-ambitious Marco-Silva-led Everton), but this frames the fees Watford have previously received for players on similar trajectories.

A similar player to Dennis, in terms of age, position, defensive work, and ball-carrying ability, Dan James can also be used as a barometer for the fee the Hornets should seek. Again, this is not a direct comparison, and most would agree Dennis is the superior player, but keeping in mind the Hornets will lose leverage if (or when) relegated, their respective transfer fees should land in a similar range. After two years with Manchester United, with James having hot spells in both seasons but not without other long fruitless periods, the promising forward went to Leeds United in a roughly £25-million transfer. If that is what James went for last summer, Dennis should certainly call for a similar, if not greater, fee this summer.

When considering summer sales, whether it be for Sarr, Dennis, or other stars, expectations on fees must be toned down because of the implications relegation has. Nonetheless, a sale of Dennis should see the Hornets recouping around £25 million for his services – funds which would be pivotal in keeping the club in a solid-enough position to not be totally wrecked by relegation. The phone should be hung up if less than £15 million is offered, as no fair agreement will be reached with such a difference in valuation. However, Dennis can significantly increase that figure if he rediscovers his firing form from the first half of the campaign. 

Early Roy Hodgson Assessment: Better, but More Change Needed

In Watford’s first match under Roy Hodgson, they picked up a clean sheet. Yes, Watford lasted a full ninety minutes without conceding. Admittedly, it was against bottom-of-the-table Burnley who had recently lost their long-time best striker in awful weather conditions, but they nonetheless kept a clean sheet for the first time all season. Defensively, this was a step in the right direction. In 180 minutes of football under Hodgson, the Hornets have only conceded once (which was a shot that took an unfortunate deflection), a remarkable turn of events in the backline for the Hertfordshire outfit. However, what Hodgson has given them has detracted from other areas of the pitch, only shifting a balance rather than creating an outright better one. 

Defensive Stability Achieved

In Hodgson’s first two matches as manager of the Hornets, he has fielded a rigid 4-4-2 formation, naming three central-midfielders and Ken Sema as the middle four in his Watford debut, and fielding four central-midfielders in the second. In both matches, their backline consisted of new-signing Hassane Kamara at left-back, recently-arrived Samir partnered with Craig Cathcart at center-back, and Kiko Femenia at right-back. 

As mentioned, in two matches under Hodgson, the Hornets have only conceded once to a lucky strike, signaling an immense improvement defensively. Both times out, they conceded fewer than one Expected Goal, a feat achieved only four times in their first 20 matches (source: understat). 

The improvement in the defense is a byproduct of the tremendous boost Kamara has provided and the strict organization imposed by Hodgson. The defensive-minded middle four gives the Hornets a much-needed layer of protection for the backline, giving them more time to remain organized and track runners. Unfortunately for Hodgson, this is not without consequences.

Attacking Acumen Compromised

As the middle four have been so defensive-minded in recent matches, the front two have been cut off. The return of Ismaila Sarr from AFCON will provide much-needed help, but simply put, what Hodgson has given Watford defensively, he has taken away almost as much from the attack. 

Joshua King and Joao Pedro started as the lone two strikers against Burnley, whereas Emmanuel Dennis and King started against the Hammers. Both times out, the attackers were left too isolated. King would be tasked with holding the ball up for runners to arrive. Oftentimes, the support would not come, and when it did, it would go to the feet of midfielders who are not known for their attacking acumen. Pedro and Dennis were tasked with carrying the ball via intricate dribbles, only to frequently be let down with insufficient or unfavorable help arriving. 

Watford average just 0.635 Expected Goals per match since Hodgson arrived, coming against teams who are not necessarily renowned for their defensive strength. With such structure and defensive-mindedness coming from eight of the ten outfield players on the pitch – and sometimes more – there is no wondering why the attack has been suffocated. Of course, this has helped the Hornets become a much better team structurally and defensively. The attacking threat, however, has been compromised. If Hodgson is unable to find a way to start Pedro, Dennis, and Sarr together, then it seems unlikely that the current tactics will give them enough attacking threat, regardless of how much their defense will have improved. The Hornets were never going to be safe if they kept leaking goals. Now, the worry has polarly changed, as they will not be safe if they are incapable of finding the back of the net. Both extremes have been reached this season, so Hodgson needs to find the hopefully-achievable balance. 

What Roy Hodgson Needs to Do at Vicarage Road to Keep the Hornets in the Premier League

A lot. Simply put, Roy Hodgson has a lot he needs to fix if he is to guide Watford to safety in their final 18 matches of the season. Perhaps there is too much to change and no adjustments will change their fate. If Hodgson is to be the Hornets’ savior, there are clear tweaks – or complete revamps – he must make. 

Organize the Defense

As almost all Watford fans are more than well aware of – and apologies for the reminder – they still have not acquired their first league clean sheet of the season. 20 matches played, 40 goals conceded, and zero clean sheets. With arguably the worst defense in the league, the need for change could not be screaming louder.

Watford’s defense was deceiving last season, as their 30-goals conceded was a joint record for a Championship campaign, though their Expected Goals Against Statistic was 47.3, showing lots of luck was on their side. The tangible record pleased the board, so they brought in Danny Rose (a conversation of a failed transfer for another time) and no other defenders. 

The hierarchy realized their shortcomings of the summer transfer window via terrible defensive league form and signed left-back Hassane Kamara and center-back Samir to bolster the backline. Both are improvements on the squad’s previous options, but neither is enough to completely change the quality of the defensive unit. It is up to Hodgson to use the tools at his disposal to create the most organized system possible to minimize room for error and maximize teammate support.

With Hodgson preferring to line up in a rigid 4-4-2 formation (albeit with tactical adaptability if necessary), the backline needs to have more support from the rest of the squad compared to how they did under the Hornets’ previous two head coaches. Xisco Munoz’s defense in the top flight was frantic. Claudio Ranieri’s defensive philosophy called for high pressing, often leading to disjoint between the defense, midfield, and attack when the other team had possession. Hodgson must remain strictly organized with the Hornets to ensure the team’s defensive unit is a unit of 10, rather than multiple units spread across the pitch. Instead of several small layers of protection, Watford need a single, much firmer unit. 

Watford’s backline can only improve a marginal amount in terms of quality: Samir and Kamara having more time to settle into the squad will help, but with the transfer window now shut, major defensive improvement is unlikely to come from an individual’s form. It is up to Hodgson to ensure the defensive unit involves the entire squad as a cohesive block, meaning the underperforming backline are not stranded. Counterattacking football is not necessarily jeopardized, but even if it were, the Hornets stand no chance of safety if the defense does not improve.

Methodically Mold the Midfield 

If Hodgson elects to line up in his 4-4-2 formation, the two central midfielders need to be well adept at transitioning phases of play and defending deeply when needed. Two of Edo Kayembe, Moussa Sissoko, and Imran Louza must be chosen for the starting eleven, especially the latter considering his success in a similar system last season with FC Nantes. Peter Etebo could also find himself working his way into the starting conversation depending on how his recovery goes. 

The Hornets have no shortage of midfielder options, but not all the options are interchangeable. Some players, such as Imran Louza, must start as much as possible. 

The wide midfielders, even in a team that must be organized, should still be attacking-minded players. As in, when Ismaila Sarr comes back from AFCON, he must be played as the right midfielder and not as the striker (like how Vladimir Ivic tried deploying him in the Championship). The opposite wide midfielder must also have sufficient attacking prowess, rather than leaving the flanks too-defensive minded. A balance must be maintained and the stars must take their most natural positions. 

Not much change is required in the attack, which is why it is all the more important for Hodgson not to deplete the starting eleven of attacking options. In a 4-4-2 formation, the Hornets must have four attacking-minded players to keep the balance of defense and attack not too lopsided in either direction. If anything, the extra attacking player when compared to a 4-3-3 could benefit the Hornets’ goal output.

Conclusion

Especially considering the ridiculous transfer window Newcastle United had, finishing the season above or in the 17th spot is looking like an increasingly tough task. Regardless of the formation Hodgson elects to field, one thing is for certain: the defensive philosophy must change, the midfield must mix perfectly between the defense and the attack, while the attack must maintain its threat while not separating from the defensive block. Safety relies on steadying the ship at the back. Rigid organization – Sean-Dyche-esque – is the Hornets’ best bet at accumulating as many points as possible. It is the one philosophy they are yet to try this season.

Analyzing What Went Awry for Ranieri at Vicarage Road

Watford have become notorious for their vicious managerial philosophy. They are about to be on their third manager of the season, fourth manager in the past two campaigns, and seventh manager in the past three seasons. Claudio Ranieri was the most recent victim of the cut-throat Pozzo approach, but the sacking was necessary. So, what went wrong for the Tinkerman?

Underwhelming Options Harmed Ranieri’s Prospects of Success

Despite the Hornets making over one dozen first-team signatures between the summer and January transfer windows, both Xisco Munoz and Ranieri were still tasked with keeping a team in the Premier League that does not necessarily have sufficient Premier League quality.

When Watford were relegated, their midfield contained Etienne Capoue (now a Europa League winner with Villareal), Abdoulaye Doucoure (now at Everton), and Will Hughes (now at Crystal Palace). New-signings Moussa Sissoko and Imran Louza have performed well when called upon, but simply put, the midfield has tremendously downgraded since the Hornets’ last top-flight campaign, putting their midfield unit amongst the league’s worst. Juraj Kucka has not had a positive influence on a match since his Premier League debut, frequently caught walking around the pitch and poorly weighting passes. The same story is the case with Ozan Tufan. Peter Etebo’s injury did not help anyone’s case, but even if he were fit, the midfield would still be a downgrade from a couple of seasons ago by a considerable margin. An aging Tom Cleverley needing to start is not a good sign, while having Dan Gosling still in the squad is mindboggling. 

Defensively, the Hornets have been atrocious. They are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league this season. The defensive worries were there for the hierarchy to see even after the impressive Championship season (the Hornets conceded just 30 goals, a joint-Championship record, but they conceded over 17 fewer goals than expected, signaling lots of fortune on their behalf). The only defender signed in the summer transfer window was Danny Rose, whose time at Watford is already up due to his inability to find form. Hassane Kamara and Samir were brought in in January to sure up the backline, but it is too early to tell how much of an impact they will make. Nicolas Nkoulou was brought in as a free-agent, though his injury did not help Ranieri.

Between the sticks, both Ben Foster and Daniel Bachmann have not impressed. Many goals conceded this season could be considered “savable” if a more viable goalkeeper was in net.

The attacking ranks are the only department that appears to be of certain Premier League quality, with a healthy mixture of young talent, explosive stars, and experience. 

Overall, Ranieri, like Xisco, simply was given an underwhelming squad to begin with. With so many losses attributed to individual errors and a lack of quality, there is only so much a manager can do. It is impossible to implement tactics when the players make mistakes too frequently in the best domestic league in the world.

Ismaila Sarr Injury

Even though Watford’s attack is top-flight quality, the injury to Ismaila Sarr in the Hornets’ memorable 4-1 victory over Manchester United threw the Club’s season into turmoil. Without their top player for a prolonged period, the scintillating attack lost its most important dimension, leading to an only moderately-threatening frontline spearheading a squad with no creative forces behind it. Thus, Ranieri, Sarr, and all of Watford Football Club, were hard-done-by the injury. 

Preseason Program Prevented Proper Implementation of Tactics

Ranieri’s tactics are known: aggression, high pressing, counterattacking, and hassling the other team off of the ball. Nicely stated, too much of the Watford squad was not fit enough to play in such a system for a full ninety minutes every week. Of course, the team members are phenomenal athletes that the average person can only dream of achieving the same fitness levels of. Nonetheless, the Hornets’ preseason under Xisco required a less-demanding regimen than what Ranieri would call for. The implementation of his tactics was tricky due to not having much time to change the methodology and not having sufficient time to train the squad to the proper fitness levels/techniques needed for his tactics. 

Conclusion

Despite picking up just seven points in 13 matches, appointing Ranieri was not a bad decision at the time. There were spells of games where the Hornets were a notably better side than they were under Xisco. Ultimately, the underwhelming options are not Ranieri’s fault. Not having sufficient time to train the team to fit his tactics is not Ranieri’s fault. The frequent individual errors are not Ranieri’s fault. Watford needed change, Ranieri provided more discipline and positive football for spans, but he was ultimately let down by the squad the hierarchy gave him. Now, sacking him was necessary, for a manager can only work with the tools they have. Even though Ranieri was not the problem, it grew clear he would not be the solution with the given pieces either. 

Why Joao Pedro Is Watford’s Key to Survival

Emmanuel Dennis, Joshua King, and Ismaila Sarr are the three main names that come to mind when considering the Watford attack. However, an injury to the latter has demanded the former two to step up, as well as young forwards Cucho Hernandez and Joao Pedro. After missing the start of the season due to injury and needing a few matches to return to full fitness, Pedro has started to show the priceless value he can give the Hornets in their search for safety. 

Starred All of His Career Thus Far

Despite being just 20-years-old, Pedro is no stranger to being in the spotlight for his club. Watford officially signed Pedro for £4 million in the January 2020 transfer window, though they secured rights for the player one-and-a-half years prior. The scouting masterclass by the Hornets showed immediate dividends, with Liverpool at one point vying for Pedro’s signature from Fluminense, but they were unable to make a move as he was already set to be a Watford player. 

In Pedro’s first 200 minutes of professional football, he scored six goals and provided one assist for Fluminense, including a hat-trick in the Copa Sudamericana. His senior season with the Brazilian side did not see such prolificacy continue, though he nonetheless became a key fixture in their starting eleven.

Once he turned 18 and was thus eligible to move to England, he did not see the pitch too much for Watford in his inaugural English campaign. He made three cameos from the bench in the Premier League before Watford were relegated. 

Once in the Championship, Pedro played a key role in making sure the Hornets did not stay there for long. When he was on the scoresheet, Watford were golden. In 38 appearances, he found the back of the net nine times and provided two assists: in every match where Pedro notched a goal contribution, the Hornets won. Despite going on a dry run towards the end of the season, he was still a pivotal part of Watford’s push for promotion from the first whistle of the campaign to when a return to the Premier League was clinched. Only Sarr exceeded Pedro for Watford goals in the 2020/21 campaign.

Adjusting to Premier League Well

It took Pedro until the 14th match of the season to complete his first full-ninety in the top flight. Nonetheless, he was able to make the most of his opportunities before that point, using his cameos to show why he deserves a starting spot. He assisted as a substitute in a come-back 5-2 victory at Goodison Park. Against Manchester United, Pedro’s strong finish put the game out of the Red Devils’ reach. Then came his first full-ninety, a narrow 2-1 defeat against Chelsea on December 1st.

He has played as both a center-forward and left-winger this season, though the position is fluid during the match as his attacking partners rotate between the central and wide positions as part of Claudio Ranieri’s free-flowing counter-attacking football. He scored a wonderful goal from a tough angle against Leicester City in the FA Cup, and then he found the back of the net in what could be the kickstart to Watford’s season by equalizing deep into the game against relegation-rivals Newcastle United. 

Joao Pedro’s Versatility Necessary for Linking Play 

When all of King, Sarr, and Dennis are fit, it is expected that they would be Ranieri’s first three choices in the attack. However, Pedro has recently given Ranieri food for thought, with the Brazilian’s contributions showing the importance he has in the starting eleven.

His three league goal contributions this season were all important, and of course, as an attacker, he needs to be able to continue to find the back of the net and create. That is not at all a worry. The way he leaped for the header in Saint James’ Park to keep Watford (temporarily/for now) above the drop zone showed the mature-finisher’s head on young shoulders. His wonder-dribble against Tottenham on New Year’s Day when he ran through the entire Hotspur lineup before being fouled just outside of the box shows the footwork prowess he has. On many occasions, whether it be assisting Dan Gosling impressively for a pivotal goal in the push for promotion last year or this season’s passes in the final third, Pedro has proved he has an eye to create when it is needed.

The ability he brings into the starting eleven that no one else at Vicarage Road does is being well-equipped at picking up the ball in the middle of the pitch and linking play during counterattacks. He drops back well to defend in a Roberto Firmino-esque role, and when he is found in transition from the backline or midfield, his dribbling talent and vision allow him to create effective counterattacks. King is good at bringing the ball down and holding up play when needed. Dennis’ and Sarr’s dribbling-with-pace skills are world-class. Pedro is the one who combines dribbling with drop-back play in the most effective way. 

Whether he is deployed out wide or starts as center-forward, he always finds a way to drift into central-attacking positions to be a true, multidimensional catalyst for attacks. This season, for Premier League attacking-midfielders and wingers, he ranks in the top percentile for defensive actions that led to a shot attempt (source: FBREF), epitomizing how he retreats when necessary to defend and then spurs effective Hornets’ attacks. 

Even when Sarr returns, choosing a starting eleven will be difficult for the head coach. Pedro is showing why he can play an important role in Ranieri’s counter-attacking playing style. The sky is the limit for Pedro, and he may still be many years away from his prime. There is still so much for the youngster to learn, but the Hornets might need him to step back into the spotlight now, for if he does not, then Watford will likely be stricken with relegation, and perhaps even a Pedro departure. 

Why Watford Are Wise to Sign Hassane Kamara

With 18 matches played and a clean sheet yet to be achieved, Watford must bring in defensive reinforcements to bolster chances of Premier League survival. With only three points separating 20th-placed Norwich and 17th-placed Watford and only two points separating the Hornets from 18th-placed Burnley, Gino Pozzo must look at the January transfer window as the way to increase those gaps. Fortunately for Watford supporters, it seems as if the defensive reinforcements will be coming, with a notable left-back arriving likely to be shrewd business. 

Watford Reportedly Sign Hassane Kamara: What the Statistics Say

Left-Back Troubles

Even though center-back woes have been a main focus amongst pundits when discussing Watford, the left-back position has not helped any better defensively. Danny Rose is struggling to adapt to life back in the Premier League after his fallout at Tottenham. The much hoped-for return to full fitness is yet to occur. A horrific match against Manchester City, where he showed Bernardo Silva onto his stronger left foot, led to him being dropped in the subsequent match for 21-year-old right-back Jeremy Ngakia. Adam Masina has been a mixed bag this season. With frequent injury issues popping up and extra matches needing to be played – leading to fixture congestion later in the season – the need for a new left-back is clear.

Watford Set to Sign Hassane Kamara

According to Adam Leventhal of The Athletic, Watford have agreed on a deal for OGC Nice left-back Hassane Kamara. 

He initially signed for Nice in 2020, from Stade Reims, for a fee in the region of £3.5 million. After starring for Stade Reims, he picked up where he left off in the 2020/21 season, starting almost all of Nice’s matches and performing well. However, as Nice signed Melvin Bard this summer, the young left-back has been taking considerable minutes from Kamara, opening up the door for a transfer away.

Well-Rounded Defender With Attacking Acumen

According to FBref.com, when compared to all fullbacks in the top five major European Leagues in the past 365 days, Kamara ranks impressively in most metrics. His 1.11 shots per match ranks in the 91st percentile (for the given category above, as all statistics discussed will be in comparison to), while his goals-per-shot-on-target rate of 50% ranks in the 84th percentile. 

When it comes to passing consistency, he ranks between the 64th and 77th percentile for passes completed per match, pass completion percentage, total passing distance per match, passes into the penalty area per match, and crosses into the penalty area per match. Neither Rose nor Masina find themselves above the 44thpercentile in any of these statistics (and are significantly below that mark for most), showing Kamara’s passing ability significantly exceeds Watford’s current left-backs respective current abilities. Having more certainty when trying to build out from the back is a must for the Hornets, and Kamara will help provide that. Slotting in the 73rd percentile for dribble completion percentage and players dribbled past per match, his dribbling is also easy to rely on, further backing the claim of his reliability when in possession. 

Ranking above the 80th percentile for both tackles and pressures in the final third per 90 minutes, he will provide the pressing intensity that Claudio Ranieri demands from his players. Placing in the middle of the pack for most other defensive statistics while also impressing with 52.2% of dribblers tackled (70th percentile), Kamara will certainty bring defensive stability into the backline.

When looking at the statistics, Kamara does not overly-excel in one category while sacrificing another. He is above average in almost every metric that deserves consideration. What Watford need is consistency and reliability in the backline for the second half of the campaign: Kamara provides both of those.