Five Major Watford Transfer Rumors Ahead of January Transfer Window

The December and January span of the season is often seen as the campaign’s most important two months: between highly-congested fixture lists and the January Transfer Window, the trajectory a team has for the second-half run-in is typically made or broken in this time. Even though some of Watford’s festive-period matches will have to be moved to a later date due to COVID-19 concerns, now is still the most pivotal junction in the season for change. With glaring problems in the defensive department, crucial signatures are a must if the Hornets are to maintain their Premier League status, or to even obtain their first clean sheet since their return to the Premier League.

Hornets Weigh Up Moves for Necessary Defensive Reinforcements

With more transfer rumors sure to spring up between now and January 31st, the first names to the transfer list are noteworthy and fit with the theme of needing strength in the backline. 

Football Insider claims that Watford have entered the race for Bournemouth center-back Steve Cook’s signature as his contract winds down. Simply put, the Hornets hierarchy eyeing up a move for a center-back is a good sign, but a move for Cook would signal desperation. Cook, who joined Bournemouth from Brighton in 2012, has been an ever-present in their starting eleven, including their five seasons in the Premier League. However, this season, Cook has only found the pitch four times. Cook has what it takes to playing in the Premier League once more, though he does not provide an upgrade on the Hornets’ current options and his lack of playing time this season could be harmful with the squad calling for a fully-up-to-speed defender as soon as possible. Furthermore, even if for a cut-rate price, signing a 30-year-old Steve Cook for a transfer fee and a long-term contract would not be financially shrewd. 

According to Tuttomercatoweb, Claudio Ranieri is pushing for Watford to complete a move for 29-year-old center-back Omar Colley. For the past few seasons, Colley has been a consistent key figure for Sampdoria, especially during Ranieri’s two-year stay as their manager. He is under contract until 2025, meaning any permanent transfer would come near (or in) the eight-digit range. Considering the current financial situation Watford find themselves in amidst COVID-19 and the risk of another relegation, a move would more likely have to come in the form of a loan with a small fee or a loan with an obligation to buy if safety is achieved. Already playing 17 times this season and having a firm relationship with Ranieri, a temporary move for Colley would be an advisable piece of business. 

Mike McGrath of the Telegraph states that Watford are eyeing moves for Arsenal defender Sead Kolasinac and Tottenham defender Joe Rodon. A loan move or cut-rate price transfer for the soon-out-of-contract Gunner, who primarily plays left-back, (another position requiring attention) but can also play center-back, would likely not be hard to agree on. Arsenal no longer need the 28-year-old, while Watford need reinforcements in both of his strongest positions. However, he has been injured for the past month after suffering an ankle injury on international duty. With a timeframe for return still not perfectly established and the Hornets needing quick change, a move for Kolasinac could be decent in the long term if the price is right but does not fit the view of quick changes.

A loan move for 24-year-old center-back Rodon would be a wise deal to wrap up as quickly as possible. Now dumped out of the Europa Conference League, the minutes at White Hart Lane this season will be few and far between, so a loan move to Vicarage Road to further develop the young defender’s skills and increase his transfer value would be perfect for all parties. The Welsh International Team player has already proved his is a level above the Championship and good enough for the top-flight, and he still has room and the ability to further improve. Unfortunately for the Hornets, they are not in pole position for his signature, as cash-injected Newcastle lead the race, with Leeds and Brighton also keeping tabs. 

Watford Want Welsh Winger

Simon Jones of the Daily Mail suggests Watford will monitor the progress of 22-year-old winger/wide-midfielder Sorba Thomas for the rest of the season. The Welshman joined Huddersfield Town in January from non-league side Boreham Wood, though he struggled to break into the first-team in the Championship in the second half of last campaign. However, this season, Thomas has started off superbly, scoring one goal and providing nine assists in 24 matches across all competitions. This form has warranted an international call-up just nine months after he left the fifth tier of English football. Watford are sure to already have kept their eye on him for some time now considering his non-league club was also from Hertfordshire. However, if this transfer were to happen, it would more likely happen in the summer if safety is secured.

Many more names will come through the rumor mill: some names will be true links, a couple will hopefully become reality, and many will prove to be nothing more than fleeting whispers. It remains to be seen which category these names fall into, but they are all situations worth tracking.

Watford’s COVID Catastrophe Leads to Problematic Postponement – Opinion

The match scheduled for December 15th between Burnley and Watford was officially postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the Hornets’ squad. The measures to push the match back were necessary – as player safety, of course, comes first – but how the postponement occurred was calamitous. 

Necessary but Communicative Catastrophe

As an outbreak of COVID-19 is hitting the Watford squad, the moving of this game was necessary to ensure the safety of many. Even with more and more players becoming vaccinated, the virus is still highly contagious and needs to be taken seriously to protect those who are at risk of further complications. It is important that football matches do not quickly become “super spreader” events. 

Having a match pushed back is never an enjoyable experience for supporters: days are spent waiting in anticipation of a given match-up – especially the case for this relegation six-pointer – so when the league announces the game will have to be moved, there is an inevitable disappointment. However, the way Watford went about dealing with this outbreak has not been anywhere near responsible enough.

The traveling supporters had to make a 220+ mile, 4+ hour journey north to Turf Moor to be able to roar on the Golden Boys. For most of the day, all seemed well. As the sun started to set, the typical pre-match supporting nerves started to kick in. Then came the notification.

Two hours and sixteen minutes before kickoff, the Club took to social media to confirm that the Premier League had determined the match needed to be postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the Watford squad. Just 136 minutes before kickoff, the Club confirmed that the match was called off. The thousands of traveling supporters, who spent nearly double that time just to get to Burnley, had to turn around without seeing a minute of football.

Again, safety has to always be the priority, and, currently, a COVID-19 outbreak in a squad should require a postponement of games until the outbreak passes to ensure there is no extra spreading. But the fact it took the Club until just over two hours before kickoff to confirm the outbreak and postponement of the match is nothing short of appalling for numerous reasons.

There should have been much more notice given to the public about this outbreak. It is impossible to suggest that Watford only learned of the outbreak 136 minutes before kickoff. It is super unlikely, especially under revamped testing protocols, that this outbreak was only discovered within the past 24 hours. While definitive conclusions cannot be made just yet, the one certainty is that the Club could have, and most certainly shouldhave, given the public (especially the traveling supporters) much more notice of the outbreak. No, the Club does not owe it to the public to disclose every medical issue within the squad. But yes, it is the Club’s responsibility to ensure that traveling supporters know the status of their trip much more than two hours ahead of time, especially when the cause for postponement is not something that spontaneously appeared in the moment. The Club must have known about the potential problem long before they considered informing the fans that there was even a slight chance of the game being canceled. 

The ruined plans and money spent for the trip to Burnley is not a reason as to why the game should have gone ahead: once more, safety must come first. However, the fact the Club actively knew about the issue and neglected to warn supporters until it was too late for them to turn around and save their money and time is nothing short of unprofessional and condemnable. 

Pieces in Place for Potential Daniel Amartey Transfer to Watford

Yet to keep a Premier League clean sheet this season and already needing to make an emergency center-back signing, Watford undoubtedly need defensive reinforcements if they are to avoid relegation this season. Their blistering attack is showing no signs of slowing down, but their defensive frailties have been costly on too many occasions already. However, the Hornets might look to sign Daniel Amartey from Leicester City, as per a Claudio Ranieri request, to ease those problems.

Lots of Interest Reported

According to TEAMtalk, the former Leicester City manager has asked the hierarchy at Vicarage Road about a potential January swoop for Amartey, a player the “Tinkerman” signed in the mid-season transfer window of the Foxes’ famous Premier-League-winning campaign.

Teams in Germany, Italy, and Spain are also said to be looking at a potential swoop for the 26-year-old.

Daniel Amartey to Vicarage Road Would Not Be a Shock

There are many pieces in place that could work to Watford’s advantage if they are to pursue Ranieri’s request. First, Amartey is out of contract at the end of the season, meaning a transfer would not be at full price. Even though Leicester City are looking to extend his contract as he has proven to be a useful squad-rotation player (appearing in 14 matches across all competitions this season), the prospect of guaranteed starting minutes at Vicarage Road could encourage him to stall on signing the extension.

Furthermore, the relationship between Ranieri and Amartey is thought to be strong. The idea of playing under his former manager could work to the Hornets’ advantage.

And finally, a reason overlooked by most has been Amartey’s agent: Pini Zahavi. Even though the super-agent is known for his overseeing of stars such as Robert Lewandowski and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Watford surprisingly do have good links with him. Philip Zinckernagel – currently on loan at Nottingham Forest from Watford – is under the agency of Zahavi. Thus, Zahavi and the Hornets are already in close contact.

Strong Start Shows Necessary Traits He Would Bring to Vicarage Road

One of Watford’s biggest defensive problems has been an inability to build out from the back due to a poor range of passing from the center-backs. There is too much reliance on the midfielders and attackers to transition the phases of play. However, Amartey has a much-desired range of passing.

In his eight Premier League appearances this season, he has completed 56.29 passes per match (81stpercentile amongst the league’s center-backs) and has an overall pass completion percentage of 88.8% (79thpercentile). His total passing distance per match is in the 75th percentile, and his total progressive passing distance is in the 68th percentile. 

Even though Amartey is expected to have better passing statistics considering he is in a Leicester City side averaging 55.1% possession per match, whereas Watford have an average possession of 44.3%, the disparities cannot be entirely accounted for by this possession difference alone. Simply put, Amartey is a much better passer than any of the Hornets’ current center-backs. For reference, Troost-Ekong averages only 30 completed passes per 90 minutes (23rd percentile), has an 80.1% pass completion rate (23rd percentile), and ranks significantly lower in the passing distance statistics. Craig Cathcart ranks below Troost-Ekong in all of these statistics. Amartey also ranks significantly above both in each of short, medium, and long pass completion percentages. 

Amartey’s defensive ability also trumps most, if not all, of the current Watford center-backs’ respective talents. As Ranieri has asked for, the Hornets need a ball-playing center-back who helps develop possession while also knowing how to thrive in his high-pressing system. Thus, if Amartey is signed in January, it will not be too much of a surprise.

Watford Linked With Left-Back: What the Statistics Say

With Adam Masina out for the foreseeable future and Danny Rose yet to impress since joining in the summer from Tottenham Hotspur, the Hornets have a left-back headache on their hands. Yet to keep a clean sheet this season, defensive reinforcements are imperative in January if they are to want to have a solid chance at preserving their Premier League status. 

Analyzing Reported Watford Transfer Target

Watford Take Aim to Sign Anthony Caci

According to Le10Sport, Strasbourg left-back Anthony Caci is a wanted man. With his contract coming to an end at the end of this season, there is not expected to be much of any chance that the French side retain him. 

A host of Bundesliga sides have been vying for his signature since the last summer transfer window. Torino, Udinese, and Watford are now said to have joined the race for his signature. With the player edging for a move away, if Strasbourg do not sell him in the upcoming January transfer window, they will lose their youth product’s services for free.

A January transfer would likely come at a cut-rate price for the 24-year-old who has 16 Ligue 1 appearances this season (and 96 career Strasbourg senior appearances). He recently traveled to the Olympics with the French team, playing the full ninety minutes in all three matches. 

Progressive Passer and Durable Defender

Caci will not be the fullback who racks up the assists and goals. However, his wide range of passing is useful at spurring counterattacks and easing the pressure on the backline. Defensively, he is robust and reliable.

When compared to Ligue 1 fullbacks this season, he ranks in the 95th percentile for progressive passes per 90 minutes, averaging 6.31 per match (source: FBREF). His 7.32 long passes completed per match rank in the 97th percentile. His total progressive passing distance per 90 minutes ranks in the 92nd percentile. For through balls and switches of play per 90 minutes, he ranks in the 90th and 95th percentiles respectively. His ranking in the 21st percentile for crosses per 90 minutes and 41st percentile for key passes per 90 minutes shows he prefers to make his impact from deeper-lying positions. 

For most tackling statistics, he ranks between the 65th and 80th percentile. However, his pass-intercepting acumen is among the league’s best. Averaging 2.88 interceptions per 90 minutes, he ranks in the 97thpercentile. He is also yet to make an error leading to an opponent shot this season, showing his reliability and composed head, something Watford fullbacks have lacked at times recently.

He is also a defender who could quickly adapt to thrive in Claudio Ranieri’s intense-pressing system. Even though he would need to press significantly more under Ranieri than he currently has to at Strasbourg, when he does press in France, he has a notable successful pressures rate. Succeeding in 35.7% of his pressures, he ranks in the 78th percentile. 

A Vicarage Road transfer is still many steps away from happening, but it is worth keeping a close eye on this potential move. 

Evaluating the Premier League’s Signing of the Summer

Emmanuel Dennis has been the Premier League’s best signing of the summer: there is no simpler way to say it. So far, he has been Watford’s best attacker and defender. The only player who surpasses Dennis, who has six goals and five assists, in goal contributions this season is Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (thirteen goals, eight assists). The Hornets signed the 24-year-old for just £3.6 million, making his phenomenal start to life in the Premier League even more impressive. 

Attacking Star Smashing Expectations

Dennis is only the sixth player in Premier League history to reach five goals and five assists in their inaugural 12 (or fewer) matches in the competition. That statistic alone shows how well he has hit the ground running since joining from Belgian side Club Brugge. However, a deeper look into his goal-scoring and contributing output reveals even more resounding conclusions than what the raw numbers can tell. 

The Nigerian forward has been beyond clinical in front of the net this season. With an Expected Goals statistic of 3.22, he has overperformed what is statistically predicted by 2.78 goals (source: Infogol). In other words, he is scoring nearly twice as much as what his chances would mathematically suggest he should be scoring, showing peak efficiency in front of the net. 

Even when shooting from difficult angles, his shots have significantly-above-average precision and accuracy. Exactly 50% of his shots have been on target, ranking in the 91st percentile for “Premier League attacking-midfielders and wingers” this season (with Dennis mainly lining up as a winger, admittedly also having spells of matches in the center of the attack. When discussing percentiles in this article, they all refer to the percentile of the group quoted above) (source: FBREF). His conversion rate of 0.21 goals per shot epitomizes his efficiency, ranking in the 93rd percentile.

In terms of chance creation, he has overperformed Expected Assists by nearly three, suggesting his teammates have inflated his assist output by putting away their own low-quality chances. Nonetheless, Dennis’ chance-creating prowess cannot be overlooked. Five assists in thirteen matches are no accident. Furthermore, his dribbling-with-pace talent has led to many solid chances, carrying the ball into the penalty area 1.73 times per 90 minutes (76th percentile). His 2.18 players dribbled past per 90 minutes (78th percentile) also shows the influence his individual brilliance has in sparking attacks. He also drew a penalty in the recent 4-2 defeat against Leicester City. 

Aerially, despite being just five feet, nine inches tall, Dennis has excelled, winning 42.6% of aerial duals (69thpercentile) and emerging victorious in 2.37 aerials per 90 minutes (94th percentile).

And, for many people’s favorite statistic, Dennis ranks highly. He sits in the 97th percentile for nutmegs per 90 minutes (0.82).

Phenomenal Defensive Prowess

The claim Dennis is Watford’s best defender this season is not difficult to substantiate. Especially since Claudio Ranieri took over (but even under Xisco Munoz), Dennis’ pressing talent and work rate have yielded tremendous dividends on both ends of the pitch. Especially in a team where a clean sheet is yet to be achieved in the league this season, quality defensive play needs to, in part, be evaluated by how an individual’s defending helped sparked attacking opportunities. 

Dennis’ tremendous defensive work must also be considered when evaluating his chance creation. He averages 0.18 defensive actions that lead to a shot attempt per 90 minutes (94th percentile), and 0.09 defensive actions that lead to a goal per 90 minutes (99th percentile). 

He tracks back well to sometimes tuck behind the fullbacks when most other wingers would stay higher up the pitch and not provide support. Dennis sits in the 94th percentile for tackles in the defensive third, with 1.09 per match. However, his best defensive contributions come in the press in advanced positions on the pitch. He averages 21.66 pressures per 90 minutes (90th percentile) and 7.37 pressures in the attacking third per 90 minutes (88th percentile). In terms of tackling in the attacking third, he averages 0.55 per 90 minutes, ranking in the 99th percentile. 

Oftentimes, attackers are solely evaluated by their attacking contributions. Doing so with Dennis would still show he has been excellent this season. Yet, when the layers are peeled back to reveal his defensive metrics, his output on both sides of the ball becomes even more magnificent.

Honorable Mention: Maxwel Cornet

Second place for Premier League signing of the season (so far) is Maxwel Cornet. The versatile winger signed for Burnley for a fee in the region of £13.5 million from Olympique Lyon. With five goals in just seven starts, he is scoring at a rate surpassing Dennis. Cornet’s defensive ability is also above average. Nonetheless, Dennis edges Cornet out on the basis of a considerably cheaper transfer fee, chance-creating prowess, and pure defensive/counter-attacking contributions. 

Both are names to watch intently for the rest of the 2021/22 campaign and beyond. 

Watford: the Premier League’s Jekyll and Hyde

Guest-written article by Ben Thornhill

Watford’s performances this season can be grouped into two categories. For the purposes of this article, we will call them Jekyll and Hyde. 

Jekyll: 4 wins with an xG above 1 (3 of those wins with an xG above 2).

Hyde: 7 defeats and 1 draw, all 7 defeats to nil, all 8 with an xG below 1 (5 of those with an xG of below 0.5).

The Jekyll performances (1/3 of the total) have included some scintillating counter-attacking football and have yielded a whopping 15 goals. 

The Hyde performances (2/3 of the total) have included displays where Watford have carried nearly no attacking threat and have yielded a paltry 1 goal. 

What can be made of this apparently schizoid outfit? How can they look so promising one week and then revert to something so unconvincing the next? This article will explore some possible explanations for this inconsistent outfit whose latest display (very much in the Jekyll category) versus Manchester United will have had Watford fans dreaming of Premier League safety once again. 

Relative Instability of Opposition 

Each of the Hornets’ victories this season have come against opposition with a high degree of instability. Aston Villa came to Vicarage Road shortly after the loss of Jack Grealish to Manchester City and, whilst they had spent a considerable amount of money on replacements, such as Emi Buendia and Leon Bailey, Villa were clearly an outfit that were going to have some teething problems, despite having a decent squad on paper. They have since parted company with manager Dean Smith following a run of five defeats, which backs up the point that they have also struggled to find their rhythm. 

Victory at Carrow Road over a beleaguered Norwich City was a vital three points for Watford but said as much about the opposition’s wobbly defense as it did any coherence in attack from the Hornets. Before deciding to part ways with Daniel Farke, Norwich were winless in 10 games having conceded 25 goals and were rooted to the bottom of the Premier League. 

On the face of it, a 5-2 victory at Everton, a first-ever Watford win at Goodison Park, was a huge win and Claudio Ranieri’s first for Watford. However, Everton were without key players – namely England international Dominic Calvert-Lewin and ex-Hornet Abdoulaye Doucoure. They also have an unpopular manager at the helm in ex-Liverpool manager Rafa Benitez, who is finding it difficult to endear himself to the Goodison Park faithful. With no wins in their last six matches, Everton currently sit bottom of the Premier League form table and are sinking fast. 

Then came the 4-1 victory at the weekend over Manchester United. Again, this has to be slightly tempered by the abject display from an opposition who looked like they were waiting for a change of manager. The most damning statistic is United’s Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) – a measure of a team’s pressing intensity – of over 24. For some context, the majority of teams in the EPL tend to allow between 7-15 PPDA in most games. By contrast, United themselves allowed only 8.5 PPDA in their 4-1 victory against Newcastle United earlier in the season. So, whilst Watford were impressive, the victory has to be set against the backdrop of the turmoil at Manchester United, which saw Solskjaer lose his job the following day. 

Questions That Remain Unanswered

The fact remains that, whilst many of Watford’s performances this season have been alarming, results, to date, have been good enough to see them four points clear of the relegation zone. They also now find themselves four points off of Manchester United in eighth place. This can only be seen as “so far, so good.” However, if they really have turned a corner under Claudio Ranieri, there remain some questions that need to be answered:

Firstly, can Watford hurt well-organized opponents? In games when Watford fans might have hoped for better performances and more points (e.g., at home to Wolves, Southampton, and Newcastle, and away to Brighton and Leeds), Watford’s attacking threat was insignificant and it could be argued that they were lucky to glean the single point that they did from all those fixtures combined. These are the kinds of games so far this season where there has been a significant gap between expectation and performance. To date, it would have to be said that Watford have needed their opponents to have an “off day” in order to create chances and have looked out of their depth against teams who have a well-organized press. 

The second question that needs to be answered, and quickly, is: Can Watford keep a clean sheet? So far, the answer has been a resounding “no!” Narrow early season defeats were characterized by defensive lapses in possession and set-pieces which routinely undermined decent defensive work off of the ball. Under Ranieri, Watford shipped five goals against Liverpool and are still yet to keep a clean sheet. With Watford’s next three games being Leicester City (a), Chelsea (h), and Manchester City (h), it would take a bold fan to predict this run of 12 consecutive games without a clean sheet coming to an end any time soon. 

Signs of Improvement

However, there are signs that things might be improving for good. As predicted, under Ranieri, Watford have begun to press in packs higher up the pitch, most impressively in their last match against Manchester United. This puts more pressure on the opposition forcing them into errors in their own half, as seen from Tom Cleverley’s vital interception against Manchester United leading to Harry Maguire’s sending off. There is also an active form of defense, in contrast to the relative passivity seen under Xisco Munoz. The press against Manchester United helped to keep the ball in the opponent’s half and made Watford harder to play through, protecting the midfield and defense. 

As mentioned in a previous article, Watford were undermining themselves by playing out from the back with players who lack the technical ability to do it and regularly conceding goals from set-pieces. Under Ranieri, they have abandoned playing out with Ben Foster encouraged to be much more direct with his distribution – another tactic that helps to control territory and protect the back four. They are also yet to concede from a set-piece. 

The introduction of Nicolas Nkoulou in place of William Troost-Ekong over the past couple of games also looks to have had a positive impact. Nkoulou looks more composed than his teammate in possession, which has given the backline a calmer feel to it, even against “Big 6” opponents. There is some promise, then, that Nkoulou could strike up an effective partnership with either Francisco Sierralta or Christian Kabasele when they return from injury. All of this means that Ranieri is not just plugging the obvious holes seen under Munoz. With the introduction of Nkoulou, there has been a timely upgrade in personnel alongside a more effective press that is both protecting the defense and benefitting the attack. 

Conclusion

Although Watford’s best performances this season have come against opponents dealing with problems on and off of the pitch, the Hornets have still had the ability to put those sides away impressively. Without playing well on a consistent basis, they are still keeping away from danger and keeping up with the pack. Currently in the middle of an extremely difficult run of fixtures, they sit a respectable 14th in the form table, which has allowed them to keep their heads above water. Some of the changes that Claudio Ranieri has implemented have Watford looking less vulnerable and more purposeful and they are changes that increase their chances of answering those as of yet unanswered questions. The 4-1 score-line against a club the size of Manchester United could well be the fillip that this squad needs to kick on from being more Hyde and less Jekyll as they seek to find a consistent level of performance and develop a coherent identity as a team.

Statistical Assessment of Ismaila Sarr’s 2021/22 Campaign (Thus Far)

Watford’s recent 4-1 victory over Manchester United had many talking points, with the main one surrounding the subsequent sacking of Red Devils’ manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. However, many Watford supporters will be focusing on Ismaila Sarr: he missed a retaken penalty after failing to convert the initial penalty as well, but he more than remedied for his poor spot-kicks by scoring a classy goal to give the Hornets a two-goal lead. Nonetheless, Sarr’s performances as of late have come under question, though the goal against Ronaldo and Co. suggests his post-Xisco-Munoz skid of form is over. With the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United known to have been keeping an eye on Sarr for quite some time now, how has Sarr been performing beyond what the average pair of eyes can see?

Key Statistics This Season 

In this campaign, Sarr has scored five goals in 12 appearances, overperforming Expected Goals by 0.71. He is therefore overperforming Open-Play Expected Goals by around 1.5 goals. The numbers show Sarr has been a more-than-efficient finisher.

The 23-year-old struggled to find form in Claudio Ranieri’s first four matches in charge, failing to find the back of the net against Liverpool, Everton, Southampton, and Arsenal. Against the Toffees, once Sarr was subbed off of the pitch, the Hornets scored four times in less than half an hour, raising an occasional question about the place the Club’s most expensive signing has in Ranieri’s side. His starting role was never seriously questioned, as he is simply too talented to not start every match he is fit, but whether he was as effective as he could be most certainly could be doubted.

Under Xisco, both in the Championship and Premier League, Sarr thrived. 10 of Sarr’s 13 goals in the second-tier last season came under Xisco (in the 23 matches he featured in). In the Premier League, Sarr scored four goals in Xisco’s seven matches in charge. 

The clash against Manchester United suggests Sarr’s readjustment to life at Vicarage Road under a different head coach is nearing completion. After all, Xisco’s system gave Sarr tremendous freedom on the wing without too many defensive duties, whereas Ranieri demands more defensive work, namely in the high press. There was consequently a learning curve Sarr had to endure. 

However, to say Sarr has not been strong when it comes to defensive work would be inaccurate. Even though Watford left-winger Emmanuel Dennis has offered more defensively when it comes to pressures and tackles (Dennis ranks in the top percentile for Premier League wingers this season in pressures per match, at 22.91 [compared to Sarr’s 17.21] and in the top four percent for tackles per match, at 2.39 [compared to Sarr’s 0.52]), there is still some impressive defensive work being done by Sarr too. Sarr ranks in the top four percent of Premier League wingers for “fewest times dribbled past per match,” only getting beat an average of 0.35 times per 90, showing his effectiveness when pressuring. He also ranks highly in pressures in the attacking third, averaging 7.17 pressures in the attacking third per match (in the top 16th percentile). 

Sarr has undoubtedly been clinical when it comes to overperforming Expected Goals and also has started to offer Ranieri what he wants on both sides of the ball. However, Sarr’s increased attacking prowess and finishing improvement when compared to his last time in the Premier League needs to be further discussed.

Comparison to 2019/20 Premier League Campaign

Sarr has already equaled his goal tally from the Hornets’ last Premier League campaign in fewer than half the matches. The winger also underperformed expected goals that season by 1.04, signaling he should have been more lethal in front of the net. As discussed above, he has gone from underperforming to overperforming, with the one season in the Championship (where he overperformed Expected Goals by 2.87) already proving to have been an unsuspecting perfect piece to his development. 

Statistics beyond Expect Goals further show the improvement he has undergone. In the 2019/20 season, only 29.5% of Sarr’s shots ended on target. This campaign, that figure has skyrocketed to 46.2%, showing his precision has improved. Two seasons ago, he averaged 0.11 goals per shot, compared to 0.19 goals per shot this season, signaling his lethality per strike has increased. In the relegation campaign, he averaged 0.38 goals per shot on target, whereas in the return season, he is averaging 0.42 goals per shot on target, demonstrating how his accuracy (as well as, once more, his precision) has developed for the better. 

The Hornets’ desire for him to be one of their key goal-scorers has subsequently led to a slight decrease in his tangible assist output (as well as him averaging one fewer cross per game, as his instruction is to play a bit narrower than under Pearson and test his luck more frequently). But, considering his Expected Assists has decreased by just 0.04 per match, the assist sacrifice is more than just made up for by his increased goalscoring capabilities.

Outlook at Watford 

If Sarr continues in the same manner he has started the season and builds off of the goal from Solskjaer’s final match as Manchester United manager, suitors in the upcoming transfer windows will continue to arrive in abundance. Even though his contract runs through 2024, it is hard to imagine that the Hornets will not receive an irresistible offer for his services before that point.

Watford will be hoping to at least hold Sarr until the end of the season and not lose him in January. Doing so will be pivotal in the push for survival. Staying in the Premier League also gives the Hornets extra leverage in negotiations, and they have already previously slapped £40+ million price tags on him (as per Adam Leventhal of The Athletic), so the desired fee will only increase considerably. In the event of relegation, leverage will be lost, but a sizeable fee would still be able to be secured. 

Nonetheless, it is hard to see a scenario where Sarr is at Watford beyond this season: he will not want to play another season in the Championship, and unless the Hornets can extend his contract, even if they stay in the Premier League, they will rather sell him for a maximum fee than wait until he has one year left in his contract upon the conclusion of the 2022/23 season.

Whatever happens, Sarr has a tremendously bright future and will be playing Champions League football in the coming years when a transfer does come his way. For now, Hornets’ fans should (as they know) appreciate every second they have with Sarr, for players of his caliber do not usually weather the storm of relegation and drown out the noise of transfers to bigger teams. This is likely his last season at Vicarage Road, though his place fondly in Watford folklore is already secured. And, if trends continue this season, his legacy may exponentially grow. 

What to Expect From Watford’s Goalkeeper of the Future Maduka Okoye

Watford recently signed 22-year-old goalkeeper Maduka Okoye from Sparta Rotterdam. He officially becomes a Hornet on January 1st, 2022, but he will spend the rest of the 2021/22 campaign with Sparta Rotterdam before returning to Vicarage Road in the summer to attempt to tie down the Hornets’ number one spot. The expected fee is in the region of £5 million. With lots of speculation surrounding Watford’s current goalkeepers, the arrival of Okoye provides some clarity. But what can be expected from the Hornets’ likely future starting goalkeeper?

Successor for Bachmann and Foster

Recently, the future of Daniel Bachmann at Vicarage Road has grown unclear. With Ben Foster claiming the number one role under Claudio Ranieri (and controversially so), Bachmann is known to be disgruntled about the situation and is likely to seek a January departure if he does not reclaim the starting spot by the opening of the next transfer window. 

Foster is in the last year of his Watford contract, and he is known to want to go to the MLS upon the conclusion of his current deal.

Thus, the Hornets’ top two goalkeepers next year are likely to be Pontus Dahlberg (a 22-year-old currently impressing on loan with Doncaster, after impressive loans in Sweden) and Okoye. The two young goalkeepers will probably be competing with each other for the number one role regardless of what tier the Hornets find themselves in next year, with Okoye the new preference of the hierarchy and favorite to secure the starting job. 

High-Quality Shot-Stopper and Improving Cross Claimer

After spending time with Borussia Monchengladbach, Bayer Leverkusen, and Fortuna Dusseldorf’s youth teams, Okoye signed for Sparta Rotterdam in the summer of 2020. He has been an instant success in the Eredivisie. In his first season in the Dutch top-flight, he started 29 matches, keeping 10 clean sheets and conceding 37 times. The Nigerian International Team’s number one found himself in the Eredivisie Team of the Year as a result of his noteworthy performances. In 13 matches this season, Okoye has conceded 19 times, keeping two clean sheets in the process. 

Last season, Okoye had an impressive 67.4% save rate. This season, the number has gone up to 69.6%. For comparison, Foster’s save rate this season is 61.3% and Bachmann’s is 64.7%. What also must be considered is Sparta Rotterdam were promoted ahead of the 2019/20 season, thus leading to them being a team expected to be in the lower echelons of the Eredivisie (with Okoye being a large part of their recent successes). 

The 1.98-meter (6-foot, 6-inch) goalkeeper has also been rapidly improving when it comes to cross collections/aerial defending. Last season, he averaged just 0.1 “Good High Claims Per Game.” In the Championship, Bachmann, who was known for being very conservative when coming off of his line, averaged 0.5 Good High Claims Per Game. This season, Foster averages 0.7. 

However, Okoye has already tremendously improved in the area he needed to improve in most: this season, he averages 0.8 Good High Claims Per Game. PSV Eindhoven goalkeeper Joel Drommel averages 0.5 Good High Claims Per Game. Groningen goalkeeper Peter Leeuwenburgh averages 0.2 Good High Claims Per Game. Vitesse goalkeeper Markus Schubert averages 0.7 Good High Claims Per Game. Thus, Okoye ranks higher than many, if not all, other goalkeepers in the Eredivisie this season when it comes to successfully coming off of his line. Regardless of if the Hornets are in the Premier League or Championship next season, more certainty when defending crosses is needed: Okoye will already be able to provide that and is continuing to improve in that field. 

Super Eagles teammate and Watford center-back William Troost-Ekong echoed the notion that Okoye continues to improve, telling the Watford FC website, “He’s a very reliable goalkeeper with a huge will to learn, and I think he’ll add a lot of strengths to the squad when he links up with us next year.”

The jump from the Eredivisie to the Premier League is a big one. Even if Okoye winds up needing to make the step to the Championship for a season, the aerial factor of the English second tier is still just as prominent, if not a more pivotal part of the game, than in the top-flight. Still young with lots of room to grow (talent-wise, for he is definitely more than tall enough), if all goes to plan, Okoye will be the Hornets’ number one for many years to come – and possibly the only thing that could pry him away from between the sticks at Vicarage Road is a transfer to a European-competing team a few years down the line. 

Watford’s Obvious Issue

At face value, Watford’s being three points clear of the relegation zone after ten matches does not seem so bad. Unfortunately, those ten performances suggest many reasons to listen for alarm bells, and the reasons for starting to hear them are not hard to find. And, with the Hornets’ next five fixtures coming against Arsenal, Manchester United, Leicester City, Chelsea, and Manchester City, Watford may find themselves slipping into the relegation zone sooner rather than later.

Midfield and Attack Good (Enough) for Premier League

The Hornets have one of the weakest squads in the Premier League when it comes to player-by-player talent, which is natural considering they were recently promoted and were stripped of lots of their core from the 2019/20 top-flight campaign. The midfield backbone of Will Hughes, Etienne Capoue, and Abdoulaye Doucoure is completely gone. Roberto Pereyra, Gerard Deulofeu, Jose Holebas, Craig Dawson, and more are no longer at Vicarage Road. Some have been amply replaced – others have not. 

It was always going to be hard for the Hornets to replace their midfield three from the 2019/20 season. Capoue is now a Europa-League-winning midfielder, Doucoure was one of the best midfielders in the Premier League before his injury this season, and Hughes, despite having yet to play for Crystal Palace, is still difficult to find a suitable, talent-for-talent replacement for.

Nonetheless, their midfield should be “good enough” for a non-relegation Premier League club. Between Moussa Sissoko, Juraj Kucka, Imran Louza, Ozan Tufan, Peter Etebo (when he comes back from injury), and Tom Cleverley, there is sufficient skill in the midfield to stay in the top flight, especially considering the high-pressing type of midfielders Ranieri’s system calls for. It is a downgrade on the 2019/20 midfield, but it still should “get the job done,” especially for what Ranieri wants.

The attack is the one area of the pitch which has arguably improved: even with the departures of Deulofeu and Troy Deeney (albeit he was far from his prime by the 2019/20 season), there appear to be more potential goals in the attacking rotation (and better depth). Watford now have a more-experienced Ismaila Sarr, potentially-prolific Joshua King, future stars Joao Pedro and Cucho Hernandez, and the in-form, speedy Emmanuel Dennis. So, it is clear where the goals will come from, and it is hard to doubt there is sufficient quality to score “enough.”

Blatant Issue Continuing to Wreak Havoc Against Hornets

Watford are yet to keep a league clean sheet since their promotion. Between the sticks, neither Daniel Bachmann nor Ben Foster have impressed (especially the latter, who, regardless of his YouTube antics, has gotten worse positionally and judgmentally in-game since his stellar 2019/20 campaign). 

The heart of the defense has also not particularly improved. Christian Kabasele and Craig Cathcart are getting up there in age and past their primes (though there is more hope that the former can return to his best fitness levels). Cathcart’s performances have been particularly alarming. Francisco Sierralta was stellar last season in the Championship, helping Watford equal the best-ever Championship defensive record with only 30 goals conceded. However, he is yet to prove himself in the Premier League (albeit largely due to injury). William Troost-Ekong, also signed ahead of Watford’s recent Championship campaign, complimented Sierralta well in Xisco’s preferred partnership. Despite some strong Premier League performances, Troost-Ekong has lacked consistency. He passed the ball directly to Yves Bissouma which led to a goal in a clash against Brighton and did not close down Che Adam’s on Southampton’s lone goal at Vicarage Road, just to name a couple of questionable defensive choices by the 28-year-old. Nicolas Nkoulou has only recently signed and not made a Hornets’ start, so his impact remains to be seen. Craig Dawson – who departed in the summer of 2020 – has been a star for Europa-League-competing West Ham United.

The right-back position has arguably improved, with Kiko Femenia improving last campaign (although not finding consistency due to injury since promotion) and the rise of Jeremy Ngakia. The left-back position has remained the same in terms of talent, with Adam Masina and Danny Rose competing for the starting role (with Rose belatedly coming in at the expense of Jose Holebas).

The statistics show how alarmingly poor the defense has been this season. Watford have conceded the fourth-most goals in the league this season (18), with only Aston Villa (19), Newcastle (23), and Norwich (25) conceding more. In terms of Expected Goals Against, the Hornets are third-worst in the league, but only 1.21 xGA away from being the worst. Watford have yielded 18.68 xGA, while Norwich have conceded 18.91 xGA and Newcastle have allowed 19.89 xGA. That is not good company to be around.

Even though there is always room for the attacking ranks to improve (the Hornets are tied tenth for goals scored, overperforming xG by 1.68), if the Hornets cannot keep clean sheets and are giving away nearly two goals per match, then the Premier League may simply not be the right league for them. Their defense does not have to be impenetrable, but improvement is needed. Goals will come with the players and management they have. However, the porous defense does not appear solvable through their current squad’s individual talent alone. Whether the remedy is tactics, January signings, the return of Sierralta/introduction of Nkoulou, or a combination remains to be seen. 

Everton vs Watford: Live Updates

Watford travel to Goodison Park in the second match of their Claudio Ranieri era. After a humiliating 5-0 defeat against Liverpool, the Hornets will be looking to bounce back against the other half of Merseyside – Everton – who will also be extra hungry for a win following a 1-0 defeat against West Ham.

Live Updates

FULL TIME: Everton 2-5 Watford

What a performance by the Hornets! Claudio Ranieri gets his first win as Watford head coach with a come-from-behind (and then some) victory at Goodison Park. In what was easily Watford’s best performance of the season, the tactical identity was there for all to see – high pressing, counterattacking football. Joshua King and Co. more than just got the job done.

Goal! Everton 2-5 Watford

Joao Pedro passes the ball across the top of the box to King, who then sits Keane on the ground and slots it past Pickford for Watford’s fifth. Yes, you ready the score correctly. 15 minutes ago, it was Everton 2-1 Watford 15 minutes ago. Now, Watford have a three goal lead (and Sarr was subbed off before the equalizer too, making the spectacle even more remarkable).

JOSHUA KING HAT TRICK! Everton 2-4 Watford

The scenes! King was not given the chance he wanted at Goodison Park with Everton, but he has more than proven his talent in Merseyside, but doing so with Watford! After a deflected Joao Pedro shot, King found himself with space and time in front of Pickford, who once more slotted it past the England number one. What a response and what a match!

GOAL! Everton 2-3 Watford

BFKDBFJDHBWUTWEF!!!! 88 seconds between the equalizer and the goal to put Watford ahead! There are still 10 minutes (not including added time) left, but King has scored what could be a massive goal for the Hornets! Dennis finds King on a scintillating counterattack. The Norwegian striker takes a phenomenal first touch, and then slotted it past Pickford with tremendous composure. What a dream return to Goodison Park for King (who gets a yellow card for his celebration).

GOAL! Everton 2-2 Watford

WATFORD RESPOND! Juraj Kucka scored his first Watford goal. Cucho Hernandez whips in a phenomenal corner kick, and the summer signing made no mistake with his header.

Substitution (Everton): Alex Iwobi comes on for Gray

The creator of the first goal comes off for the former Arsenal player.

Substitution (Watford): Nicolas Nkoulou comes on for Ngakia

A Hornets’ debut for Nkoulou. Likely means a change in shape for the final 15 minutes.

Yellow Card: Richarlison

This time, Richarlison makes late contact with Dennis.

Yellow Card: Emmanuel Dennis

Dennis gets booked for a late challenge on Richarlison. 20 minutes to go.

Double Substitution (Watford): Joao Pedro and Emmanuel Dennis come on for Sarr and Tufan

Ranieri has to roll the dice here.

Goal: Everton 2-1 Watford

It just had to be Richarlison. Terrible goalkeeping from Foster gives the substitute the entire match to aim at for his header.

Substitution (Everton): Richarlison on for Gordon

The former Watford player comes on for Everton. A chorus of boos rings out from the away support.

King (Almost) Scores

Sarr played a beautiful ball into the box to King who had the goal at his mercy, but Pickford made a smart kick save to keep the score level.

Yellow Card: Allan

Everton players are hitting the ground quite frequently this match. Allan went down in the box, but the dive was not hard to spot, and Graham Scott brandished the match’s third yellow card.

Second Half

The second half is underway. It does not appear as if any substitutes have been made.

HALFTIME: Everton 1-1 Watford

After a quick start from the hosts, the visitors responded well and equalized via Joshua King. The possession is nearly perfectly split. Ranieri will be pleased as it appears his signature pressing tactics are being kindly taken to by the players. When Sarr and King press high up, they can be seen waving the rest of the team forward.

Masina and Cathcart have exceptionally responded to last week’s performance. Tufan looks up to pace. Sissoko is once more performing well.

Sarr, King, and Cucho will want to better link up on counterattacks, as the Hornets have done well to spur a handful which are yet to result in a goal.

For the Hornets, this is easily one of their best halves of the season: from a pure footballing standpoint – and not focusing on the scoreline – tactically speaking, it may even be their best to date. Watford are playing with a newfound sense of identity.

Everton have had a handful of chances, and it is hard to determine where the next goal will fall (if there is to be another). There is a chance former Watford player Richarlison comes off of the bench to give the Toffees an extra attacking edge.

Tempers Starting to Flare

Following a Troost-Ekong foul from a free kick, he then prevented a quick free kick by Keane, receiving a yellow card. A bit of shoving and words came after, with Cucho Hernandez a center of attention. It would not be a surprise if a few similar types of scraps occur in the second half.

Penalty Appeal – None Given

Gordon falls in the box with Kucka on his back, but the referee rightfully deems as if there was not enough contact to warrant a penalty.

Watford Tactical Update

The 4-1-4-1 formation looks very Xisco Munoz-esque at first glance. However, the instruction for higher, more intense pressing under Ranieri is evident. They are also possessing the ball much better, currently winning the possession statistic.

Yellow Card: Lucas Digne

The Everton left-back takes down Sarr on the counterattack, picking up the game’s first yellow card. The Hornets will be extra pleased he is the first man booked, meaning he has to be even more careful when defending Watford’s star.

Goal: Everton 1-1 Watford

THE GOAL IS GIVEN: that will feel extra sweet for Joshua King’s first Watford goal, scored against his former club! Fantastic response by the visitors! Cathcart gave the flicked-on headed assist.

VAR Check

Joshua King sticks the ball into the back fo the net following a free kick. The goal is disallowed initially, but it appears he is onside and that it will be given.

Save by Ben Foster

Watford’s number one makes a save on a shot from outside of the box. The effort was tame and near the center of the net, but Foster did well to parry the ball out of the danger area.

Goal: Everton 1-0 Watford

Demarai Gray bursts down the left-hand side of the pitch to assist Tom Davies who finishes from close range. Nightmare start for the Hornets.

Kickoff

Referee Graham Scott has started the match. Seamus Coleman captains Everton, while Moussa Sissoko understandably keeps the armband after being Watford’s best performer last week.

Starting Lineups

Everton: Pickford, Coleman, Keane, Godfrey, Digne, Allan, Davies, Gray, Townsend, Gordon, Rondon

Watford: Foster, Ngakia, Troost-Ekong, King, Masina, Cathcart, Tufan, Sissoko, Sarr, Hernandez, Kucka

The Hornets have made three changes to the eleven who lost to Liverpool one week ago: Ngakia, Tufan, and King have come in for Femenia, Rose, and Dennis. The latter makes the bench, whereas the former two are out with injury. The main question marks surrounding the starting eleven fall on the decision to stick with Ben Foster between the sticks over Daniel Bachmann, Joao Pedro not being given the chance to play from the starting whistle, and Nicolas Nkoulou finding the bench but not starting ahead of Craig Cathcart (though this could be explained by him needing to reach full-match fitness). The return to full fitness of Joshua King is a huge boost.

The dismantling against Liverpool came when the Hornets went out in a 5-4-1 (which can also be considered a 5-2-3) formation with Ismaila Sarr as the central forward. Ranieri looks to have already rolled the tactical die, with a 4-3-3 the likely starting formation (and Sarr back in his preferred right-wing position).

Everton’s starting eleven is far from their strongest, with former Watford players Abdoulaye Doucoure and Richarlison not starting (the midfielder is out for an extended period, whereas Richarlison makes the bench after missing the last four matches with a knee injury). Yerry Mina and Dominic Calvert-Lewin also have not made the match-day squad due to injury concerns. Thus, the Hornets will be hoping this weakened Everton side has enough flaws to take advantage of to walk away with at least Ranieri’s first point with the Club.

*Email subscribers to Watford Opinions should refer to the website for the live match updates*