Watford’s Not-So-Cleverley Calculated Approach – Cause for Concern 

With eight matches left in the Championship campaign, Watford are significantly worse off than any team that spent six of the last nine seasons in the Premier League should be. Heading into the festive period, Watford had looked as if they may have found enough of an identity to make a push for a playoff position. Instead, the managerial carousel has spun once more, with Tom Cleverley now in charge. 

The aim for the rest of the season is simple: avoid relegation. Although the alarm bells might not be loudly ringing following a scrappy victory in Cleverley’s senior managerial debut, the nine-point cushion from the bottom three could still evaporate; the Hornets’ 2019/20 relegation campaign proved how important, yet fragile, every point is. That is not to say this season has been a complete failure. For example, 19-year-old Ryan Andrews has solidified his position as a potential long-term starter. Maybe Cleverley will prove to be a viable permanent manager in the next few weeks. Nonetheless, as more matches have been played, the positives from this season have become harder to find. Since January 14^th, Watford’s only league wins (in 11 matches) came against Rotherham, who are thoroughly alone at the bottom of the table, and recently against Birmingham City, who sit 21st. 

Valerien Ismael may not have been the problem at Vicarage Road this year, but his questionable substitutions and unwillingness to change tactics to suit a team that is not built for playing out of the back proved he is not the solution either. At the same time, the tools he was given were nowhere near enough to work with for season-long success. 

The signing of Mileta Rajovic is a necessary starting point for discussing the questionable player recruitment this past season. With nine Championship goals to his name, averaging one goal every 188 minutes, his output makes for respectable reading. Unfortunately, Watford need more than just someone who can get on the end of a cross: Rajovic ranks near the bottom of Championship strikers for shot-creating actions, touches in the attacking third, successful take-ons, and many other statistics not focused solely on putting the ball in the back of the net. While many Watford supporters seem to give him harsh treatment, some of their frustration is understandable. With only two goals in his last 19 league matches (though not all of them were starts) and little success in terms of creating chances for others, the reported 1.3 million pound transfer fee may have been better allocated elsewhere. 

As has been the case with many of Watford’s new arrivals this season, they may be “good enough” for the Championship level, but not many — if any —  were ever going to propel the Hornets forward. For a team so recently in the Premier League, fans should expect signings to still be somewhat progressive. Having recouped around 50 million pounds this offseason in transfer fees, player reinvestment of around 4 million pounds is inadequate. The previous season saw a similar story of significant funds from player sales being used primarily for purposes other than replenishing the squad. Of course, relegation from the Premier League is going to lead to financial constraints that call for other uses of the money from player sales (as reported by the Watford observer in December, the Hornets have around 25 million pounds of debt they are aiming to pay off by this summer). Still, the severe lack of reinvestment in the transfer market raises some concerns about how the Club is being managed. The approach in the transfer market has clearly been to look for players requiring minimal fees – such as Tom Ince coming in for 50,000 pounds – or no fee at all. Giorgi Chakvetadze is the only exception, commanding a fee of just over 2 million pounds when the Hornets made his loan deal permanent. 

The approach to the transfer market resulted in a squad devoid of the proper talent and depth required by Ismael. For instance, although Tom Dele-Bashiru has shown flashes of talent and worthiness to start in the Championship, the midfielder should not have to so frequently play right back. While signing Emmanuel Dennis on loan was exciting regardless of if it took him a few matches to get up to speed, he should not have been the only player to arrive in January. Although Jamal Lewis has extensive Premier League and Championship experience, he has frequently been caught too high out of position and has not been the player that once deservedly required an eight-figure fee. 

Especially once Watford’s few bright spots inevitably depart this season, namely Barcelona-linked Yaser Asprilla, the need for many new signings – optimally upgrades – will be further crystalized. 

One area under close watch must be between the sticks. The goalkeeper situation at Vicarage Road has been unstable since Ben Foster’s decline and eventual departure. In the summer of 2021, Watford reportedly turned down 15 million pounds for Daniel Bachmann’s services. This season, until his recent restoration to the starting lineup, he was benched for Ben Hamer, who likely signed for Watford expecting to be the reserve keeper as he prepared for retirement. Hamer has performed above expectations, letting in 0.9 fewer goals than expected in 19 league matches. In Bachmann’s 19 matches, he has conceded 1.7 more goals than expected. While there are other metrics to consider when evaluating a goalkeeper, many Watford fans would agree that Hamer has been the slightly superior performer. Considering Bachmann has been on the receiving end of some nasty comments pertaining to things beyond just on-field performance and may thus want to leave, and Hamer’s contract expires in the summer as he approaches his 37^th birthday, a new goalkeeper is likely needed at Vicarage Road. Similar dynamics can be found in many other positions in the current squad.

There were matches this season where the squad undeniably showed tremendous heart, and earlier on in the season, it seemed an identity was being forged. Regardless, the results have been nowhere near good enough, and continuing this trend into next season will see Watford firmly in a relegation scrap. While Cleverley’s first match in charge resulted in three points, the brand of football cannot yet be deemed as having been “significantly improved.”  

While most fans understandably call for a change in ownership, that cannot be the sole solution on which people rely. It is up to the Club hierarchy to change its approach completely. It is the minimum the loyal fans deserve. During the 2010s, the Gino Pozzo approach was not broken, so there was no reason to fix it. Even after the first relegation, it was arguable that the ideology was still to be trusted. But now, there is no doubt in the supporters’ minds — and this should be the view of Club leadership too — that a lot needs changing, and fast. The system is broken. 

Success for Watford both this season and next season is not defined by promotion: it is defined by establishing a positive trajectory, something that has been lacking for the past three seasons. 

Hopefully Cleverley provides many answers, but there is no doubt that something more has to change.