The Luton Lesson – A Familiar Story

When Watford fell to a 1-0 defeat against Bournemouth on February 27th, the main talking points were about Jefferson Lerma and an otherwise poor Hornets’ performance. On Saturday, in Watford’s derby against their arch-rivals Luton Town, a similar fate occurred – with even fewer antics needed from the Hatters.

Watford Get Dominated In Derby

52% possession. 16 shots. More passes and better passing accuracy than the opposition. In a match between a mid-table side playing for nothing but pride and a second-placed team pushing for promotion, one would expect the latter to have the mentioned statistics. In the Beds-Herts derby, however, it was Luton Town with the mentioned numbers. The statistics signal a deserved Luton Town win, or more alarmingly, a justified Watford defeat. 

Ever since the most recent international break, the Hornets’ form has dropped. A 1-0 Watford victory against Sheffield Wednesday was arguably a harsh score-line for the Owls. The Hornets settled for a 1-1 draw against Neil Warnock’s Middlesbrough. A 2-0 victory against Reading flattered Watford, as Reading missed many clear-cut chances. And, of course, the 1-0 defeat to Luton Town is the declining form catching up to Watford.

To be clear, none of this is to say Watford’s season is on the ropes. This is not an admission that Watford should not be favored for the second automatic-promotion spot. But, this is to point out the reminder that the job is far from finished, and that if form does not improve, then promotion to the Premier League is far from a guarantee. 

Against Luton Town, the Hatters were objectively better. Nathaniel Chalobah was out with injury, whereas Adam Masina ultimately missed out after initially being included on the team sheet. Even with Achraf Lazaar and Carlos Sanchez both getting their first Watford starts, the squad fielded was more than strong enough to beat Luton Town by a comfortable margin. Complacency, lack of accountability, sloppiness, laziness, and disjointed play characterized the Hornets’ performance. The main talking point is the first on the list.

Going into the fixture, most people expected Watford to win all three points, as has been the case in all matches recently. The winning intensity simply was not there. Creativity was absent. Frequent mispositioning and poor passing from most players made it impossible for the Hornets to gain control of the match. Even with Watford losing through a penalty conceded following an awful back-pass from Lazaar, the performance was worthy of zero points either way. To summarize, Watford’s complacency, amongst other factors, made them the architects of their own downfall.

A Similar Story

A sloppy, lackluster defeat such as this has been brewing for a while, has happened before, and needs to be learned from. Again. Of course, no team can expect to never lose. But, considering the time of the season and position of the opposition, a loss was unacceptable. The only thing making the loss not catastrophic for the Hornets is Brentford and Swansea both drew their home matches against sides circled as “must-beats.” Watford are still six points clear of Swansea and eight points clear of Brentford (who have one extra match to play). 

Still, the lesson that needs to be learned from the match is to only focus on the football. The Lerma Lesson was about the same idea. This time, external distractions were (surprisingly) less about antics and more about complacency, pressure, and the stigma of a derby. The psychological and tactical impact of being without Chalobah and Masina influenced the match too.

Regardless of the personnel, over the course of the past few matches, Watford have been losing their newfound identity under Xisco Munoz. The intricate play down the wings is no longer being seen. Controlling possession and allowing the attacking midfielders to set up more chances is starting to be overtaken by booting the ball forward, hoping for the best, and soaking up pressure – nearly Ivic-esque. 

With four tough matches left, promotion is far from secured. It is necessary that Watford return to their attacking identity and that individual performances do not have to bail out the rest of the squad. The draw against Middlesbrough should have been the wake-up call. The defeat at Kenilworth Road must set off a true reaction. Otherwise, the chances of promotion back to the Premier League will rapidly diminish.

Watford were in this exact situation following a heated, underwhelming defeat against Bournemouth. So, it has already been proven the Hornets have what it takes to bounce back promptly. Although this now seems to be said before every match, the upcoming clash against the Canaries is truly “season-defining.”

Watford’s Promotion-Formula Rundown

With five matches remaining for the Hornets – and a nine-point gap separating them from third place – automatic promotion back to the Premier League is more than just a wishful possibility. Watford are in the driver’s seat for the second automatic-promotion spot by a considerable margin. But, the die is far from cast.

There are thousands of combinations for how the season could play out. Supporters will be running all of these different outcomes through their heads until the end of the season or until promotion is clinched. Below is a list of each clubs’ fixtures, a discussion of the key matches, and shortcuts on how to determine the “magic number.” 

Fixtures

Watford: Luton Town (Away), Norwich City (Away), Millwall (Home), Brentford (Away), Swansea (Home)

Brentford: Millwall (Home), Cardiff City (Home), Bournemouth (Away), Rotherham (Home), Watford (Home), Bristol City (Away)

Swansea: Sheffield Wednesday (Away), Wycombe (Home), QPR (Home), Reading (Away), Derby County (Home), Watford (Away)

Key Matches

As this season has proved yet again, anything is possible. There is no such thing as a “free three points.” Nonetheless, there are some fixtures that appear more threatening than others. 

Watford’s final run-in sees them come up against the rest of the top four, as well as a derby clash against Luton Town. Despite the difficult fixtures, Watford control their own fate with the points gap, and they are playing significantly better now than they were during the reverse fixtures.

Brentford’s final six matches, as they have one match in hand, have three fixtures that appear destined to end in Bees wins. Again, there are no “free victories,” but Rotherham, Millwall, and Bristol City are all fixtures Brentford are clear favorites to win. Cardiff City and Bournemouth, however, are not teams that will easily combine to yield six points to Brentford.

Swansea, like Brentford, have a slightly more favorable run-in than Watford. Still, an away fixture at Sheffield Wednesday is no walk in the park, while QPR have had a notoriously strong second half of the season. An away fixture to Reading is a daunting task for the Swans as well.

What must be noted is that with Brentford and Swansea both having one match in hand on Watford, they will have extra fixture congestion. The Hornets only have one more midweek match left, whereas both the Bees and Swans have two. Fine margins, such as fatigue and fixture congestion, could play a huge role in the final month of the campaign. 

And, inevitably, the main fixtures that must be mentioned are Watford’s final two matches. If Watford are seven points clear of third-place heading into those matches, promotion will already be clinched. This, of course, is what Watford fans hope for. But if promotion is not clinched by then, both Brentford and Swansea will have key chances to gain serious ground on, and potentially even leapfrog, Watford.

The Magic Number

Watford are currently nine points clear of third-placed Brentford and ten points clear of fourth-placed Swansea. If both win their matches in hand, the Hornets will effectively be six and seven points clear respectively on equal games played (although Brentford’s extra midweek fixture is not until after Watford’s clash against Millwall). 

The current “magic number” for promotion is 10. If Watford pick up 10 more points in the last five matches, an immediate return to the Premier League is mathematically confirmed. The 10-point magic number is under the assumption Brentford win all of their remaining matches. Their maximum points tally for this season is 91, while Watford currently sit on 82. If Brentford catch up to Watford, the Bees’ goal differential will likely be considerably better than the Hornets’. Winning every match for the rest of the season is beyond a steep task for Brentford – not impossible, but highly improbable.  

Here is the list of equations for calculating the “magic number” for the rest of the season: 

Watford victory: subtract three from the magic number.

Watford draw: subtract one from the magic number.

Watford loss: the magic number stays the same.

Brentford loss/draw and Swansea win: subtract one from the magic number (only applicable until Swansea go ahead of Brentford).

Brentford draw and Swansea draw/loss: subtract two from the magic number.

Brentford loss and Swansea draw/loss: subtract three from the magic number.

If Swansea go ahead of Brentford, repeat the same process but replace the two teams in the formulas above.

If they are level on points, a draw for both is subtract two and a loss for both is subtract three. 

A victory for both teams or the team closest to Watford: the magic number stays the same.

And to be clear, if Watford win and Brentford win, the magic number still decreases by three, for example.

So, if Watford theoretically win and both other teams lose in a given match-week, six points can be slashed off the magic number on a given day. The earliest Watford could clinch promotion is against Norwich, if Brentford drop four points from their next two matches, if Swansea drop three points in their next three matches (as their extra midweek fixture is on April 13th), and if Watford win against both Luton Town and the Canaries.

Odds indicate Watford will eventually get their moment of joy at promotion. That moment will likely not be in the next couple of matches, but it is still a possibility. But, what has to be remembered is that nothing is ever set in stone until the math says so. The push for the automatic-promotion places is far from over. Watford are in pole position by a decent margin, but serious veering from the track still cannot be afforded. 

Watford Player Ratings Following Scrappy Victory Against Sheffield Wednesday

The Hornets were able to sting the Owls for all three points at Vicarage Road in what was a mostly lackluster match. 

The hosts were always favorites to win the match, with the return of Philip Zinckernagel and Ismaila Sarr to the starting eleven further giving Watford a personnel advantage. Xisco Munoz’s men came out of the gates strong. Adam Masina’s inch-perfect cross-pitch aerial pass to Sarr allowed the Club’s record signing to hit a low cross intended for Isaac Success. Tom Lees turned the ball into his own net before the ball reached Success. The linesman raised his flag so as to say the Nigerian striker was offsides, but after deliberation with Chris Kavanagh, the goal was rightfully awarded.

The rest of the match was without too much goal-mouth excitement. Although Watford had most of the better attacking spells, Sheffield Wednesday ended the match with 52% possession. The three points were necessary for gaining separation from Swansea and Brentford, though the obtaining of the points was far from pretty and not one of the Hornets’ stronger performances as of late. But, considering the untimeliness of the international break, tired legs as a result of it, and inclusion of multiple returnees from injury, a slight drop-off in the first match back is understandable. Nonetheless, a crucial three points were picked up from a spirited, albeit not overwhelmingly strong, performance.

Player Ratings

Starting XI

Daniel Bachmann: the Austrian shot-stopper put in yet another strong claim as to why he should continue to be the Hornets’ number one. He grows in confidence when it comes to coming off of his line/commanding the box every week and moved smartly to preserve the 1-0 lead at the end of the first half. A great performance overall from Bachmann and another clean sheet.

Rating: 7.5/10

Kiko Femenia: the Spaniard put in yet another solid performance. This was not one of his loudest matches, though he moved forward well on a couple of occasions and was defensively sound. His relatively quiet match was not his fault, and he did what he had to well. 

Rating: 7/10

*William Troost-Ekong*: although Sierralta has stolen the spotlight as of late, Troost-Ekong deserves a tremendous amount of praise for his performance. Despite captaining Nigeria in the middle of the week, Troost-Ekong looked rejuvenated and lively. He dealt with the Sheffield Wednesday aerial threat well and looked solid throughout. This was a true man-of -the-match performance from the summer signing. 

Rating: 8/10

Francisco Sierralta: Watford’s surprise gem put in yet another applaudable performance. He commanded the air well for the most part and the opposition attack rarely got behind him. He picked up a pointless yellow card, however, as well as being partially responsible for giving up a big chance at the back post due to his skewed heading of a cross. Still, Sierralta was strong throughout.

Rating: 7/10

Adam Masina: besides his perfect distribution to Sarr in the lead-up to the goal, the Moroccan had a relatively quiet match (as most of the squad did – as was a common theme of the match). Despite looking fatigued at times, he did well to not get beat and put in some good standing challenges to prevent crosses from entering the box late on.

Rating: 7/10

Will Hughes: the former Derby County player continues to stake his claim as to why he is the best central midfielder in the Championship. He sat in front of the defense well and was an unsung pacemaker throughout the match. Although lots of his contributions get overlooked due to his deep position on the pitch and lack of involvement right in front of the net, Hughes did not do much of anything wrong. Always reliable, composed, and accurate.

Rating: 7.5/10 

Nathaniel Chalobah: the captain was unable to fully repeat the stellar performance he put in against Birmingham City – with his highlights Friday coming mainly when not in possession. He still played solidly and captained the Club to a hard-fought win, but he will be looking to offer a bit more on the ball next time out against Middlesbrough. Admittedly, the bar for him, especially considering recent performances, is already very high. 

Rating: 7/10 

Philip Zinckernagel: like his partner in the attacking-midfield of the 4-1-4-1 variant of the 4-3-3, Zinckernagel did not have as much of an influence on the ball as he could have considering his abilities. Admittedly, the Dane is coming back from an injury that has seen him without minutes for nearly three weeks. Still, the creativity that has made him a must-start player was missing for large parts of the match. 

Rating: 6/10

Ismaila Sarr: the pleasantly surprising inclusion in the starting eleven continued to show glimpses of why some of the top clubs in the world are vying for his signature. It was his sublime first touch and cross that led to the own goal. He wreaked havoc on the Sheffield Wednesday defense on other occasions too. Statistics alone do not justly explain his performances: this match is a prime example of that.

Rating: 7.5/10 

Isaac Success: his return to fitness is great to see. Unfortunately for Success, he let chances go begging that other strikers in the Club likely would have done better with. Some aspects of his play, such as his hold-up abilities, are starting to come to the fore, but overall, him replacing Joao Pedro centrally (albeit due to fitness/injury-induced reasons) dials down the Hornets’ attacking threat. Despite getting into good positions, his finishing ability was not there for the second match running. When other strikers in the Club miss multiple good chances despite their own good movement, they are given low ratings for it.

Rating: 5.5/10

Joao Pedro: always looking a threat when on the ball, the 19-year-old nearly doubled Watford’s lead with an impressive cross-body strike at the end of the first half. He made some threatening runs and dribbles before he was forced off with an injury. When fitness issues around the club permit, however, Pedro needs to be moved back to his natural central position. 

Rating: 7/10

Substitutes

Andre Gray: the Jamaican international team player looked lively when he came on for Success in the 61stminute. He worked his way behind the opposition defense well on a couple of occasions, and he pressed impressively as well. If Pedro needs to miss time, Gray might have done enough to have usurped the central-forward spot from Success.

Rating: 7/10

Dan Gosling: he slotted in well for Philip Zinckernagel. The former Bournemouth man did not detract from the team’s performance. However, 30 minutes was not enough time for him to make a memorable impact.

Rating: 6/10

Ken Sema: his coming onto the pitch was impressive considering he played for Sweden on Wednesday. He hardly saw the ball during his 20 minutes on the pitch. 

Rating: 6/10

Carlos Sanchez: despite previously doing well in his cameos from the bench, Sanchez looked off the pace after being introduced to the fray in the 84th minute. He made a couple of poorly-weighted, awfully-timed passes to the defense in the closing stages of the match, giving Sheffield Wednesday unnecessary chances at late parity. 

Rating: 5.5/10

**Note: disagreeing with player ratings is common and understandable. Also, do not use player ratings from one match as an overall indication of a player’s talent/contributions to the Club. The rating is solely a numerical value to summarize how Watford Opinions viewed and analyzed an individual’s match-day performance.

Cucho Hernandez: Watford Cannot Afford A Luis Suarez Repeat

Watford have been increasing their international scouting activity ever since the Pozzo family bought the Club in 2012. When Watford sign a youngster from South America, the player typically spends their first couple of seasons under contract with the Hornets elsewhere – whether due to work permit issues or simply a lack of experience. Cucho Hernandez, the embodiment of Watford’s South American scouting and integration system, is nearing a pivotal junction in his career. The Club need to make sure the Colombian does not follow in the footsteps of a player nearly identical to him.   

Hernandez’s Time In Europe

The 21-year-old forward signed for Watford in 2017 from Pereira in his home nation of Colombia. He has yet to make an appearance for the Hornets, but he has been improving tremendously abroad. Hernandez earned a loan move to SD Huesca in the 2017/18 season. The La Liga side were in the second-tier during the first half of his two-year loan spell. He was the focal point to their first-ever promotion to the top flight. In that campaign, he scored 17 goals and assisted on six in 35 appearances. 

The following season was less successful for Hernandez and SD Huesca. The Club were unable to avoid relegation, missing out on safety by eight points. Nonetheless, Hernandez was pivotal to the highlights of their inaugural La Liga campaign. Despite only scoring four goals and providing three assists, it was evident the Colombian was continuing to improve. He scored a goal against both Barcelona and Real Madrid.

Watford elected to loan Hernandez to RCD Mallorca for the 2019/20 season to ensure he continued to receive top-flight minutes. He missed the Spanish side’s first 15 matches due to injury. When he regained fitness, he continued to show signs of why he is so highly-rated. In 22 appearances, he scored five times and assisted once. Unfortunately for Hernandez, his side finished in 19th for the second season running, although this time only missing on safety by four points. 

The current season saw Hernandez depart on his highest-profile loan yet: a year-long transfer to Getafe, which made the Europa League Round of 16 last season. For the club based in Madrid, Hernandez scored two times and assisted on three goals. Despite recently being ruled out for the season due to a fifth-metatarsal fracture, his host club wants him to stay for at least the next campaign. But, according to Marca, Watford do not want to listen to offers just yet – and wisely so. 

Watford Must Avoid Another Luis Javier Suarez Scenario

Luis Javier Suarez’s career was nearly identical to Hernandez’s until the most recent summer transfer window — when Suarez was sold for a fee worth up to eight figures. 

Like Hernandez, Watford bought Suarez from a Colombian side (Leones FC). Suarez spent some time with Granada CF’s Under-19 setup and second-team as a loanee from Leones FC before his sale to the Hornets. In his first season under contract with Watford, he was loaned to Real Valladolid B in the Spanish third-tier. In 34 appearances, Suarez scored 11 times. 

In the 2018/19 season, Suarez was loaned to Gimnastic in the Spanish second-tier. Eight goal contributions in 37 appearances continued to gain recognition for the strong forward. Last campaign, his loan to the same league with Real Zaragoza put him in the scouting notes of some of the top teams in the world. A 19-goal, six-assist season to lead his side to the Segunda Division Promotion Playoffs earned him a transfer to Europa-League-competing Granada CF.

Watford, however, wanted to keep hold of the 23-year-old. When the Spanish second-tier resumed play for the promotion playoffs, the Hornets did not allow Suarez to play for Real Zaragoza, as they wanted him in England for preseason preparations instead. He even donned a Watford kit in a friendly against Scunthorpe. The ever-improving versatile attacker, who now has seven goals in 27 appearances for Granada CF, would have been a focal point in the Hornets’ push for promotion.

Nonetheless, between the financial implications of the coronavirus and relegation, Watford knew they could not turn down a sizable bid. And so, when the offer arrived, Suarez departed for good. The substantial profit from the transfer of a player who never played a competitive minute with the Club is still impressive and noteworthy, but Watford certainly missed a grand opportunity to have a truly prolific striker.

If Hernandez follows Suarez’s path, then the Watford hierarchy will be frustrated for a long time. Even if Joao Pedro is to be the heir to Deeney’s high-scoring throne, they must avoid losing Hernandez. Chances at finding and inexpensively developing such young, talented, ever-improving goal-scorers are hard to come by. His future at Vicarage Road, however, has a key focus.

Keeping Hernandez Nearly Contingent On Promotion

As stated, Marca recently reported Watford are unwilling to listen to offers for Hernandez until the end of the season. The Club believe that if they are to be promoted, then it is the perfect time for Hernandez to finally make Vicarage Road his year-round home. And, based on an interview with a radio station from Pereira, Hernandez is not expected to reject the prospect of playing with Watford in the Premier League. 

Of course, promotion to the Premier League is far from secured. Although the Hornets currently sit in the driver’s seat for the second automatic promotion spot, anything can happen with eight matches remaining. A return to the Promised Land is nowhere near guaranteed, hence why the Club are unsure about his future. It seems Watford’s future determines Hernandez’s. If Watford continue to play Championship football next season, then they seem resigned to cashing in. 

Still, Watford should solidify Hernandez’s future at Vicarage Road as soon as possible. If the Hornets do not achieve promotion but are able to keep Hernandez, then they will still be promotion contenders next season, even if other notable names depart. Having Hernandez in the Premier League would be helpful and a luxury, but having him next campaign no matter what will massively benefit the Hornets in many ways. If he follows in Suarez’s footsteps, the Hornets will have missed out on properly utilizing yet another future star. 

Masina’s Moroccan Mobilization: Explaining And Analyzing His Call-Up

After months on end of club football, another international break has arrived. International team managers scrambled to submit their squads for a break filled with qualifiers for multiple competitions. One Watford player turned heads with his call-up. Adam Masina, who made his Italian Under-21 debut in 2015, is now on the Moroccan International Team. His inclusion is an eye-opener, and a pleasant surprise, for a key reason.

Adam Masina’s Mixed Season

Masina missed the first 19 matches of the season with a tendon injury. The left-back’s reintroduction to the squad was epitomized by his last-ditch challenge on Teemu Pukki to preserve a 1-0 lead over Norwich City in late December. When initially back from injury and in the starting eleven, Masina was in fine form. Kiko Femenia was thus able to move to his preferred right-back position – giving Watford one of the most, if not the most, dangerous right-side in the league.

The 27-year-old’s form started to dip. Some fans became disgruntled with his performances. He started to make poorly-weighted passes and misplace long balls more frequently. He uncharacteristically got caught out of position on a couple of occasions.

The string of somewhat shaky matches was quickly forgotten. Against both Nottingham Forest and Cardiff City, Masina scored the winning goal – with the goal in the latter being the Hornets’ first direct free-kick goal in nearly five years. He built up a positive head of steam, so an inaugural international senior call-up is deserved. But, breaking into the Italian International Team is tremendously difficult. Morocco, in need of left-backs, noted Masina’s eligibility and acted. Masina’s international switch, despite being unexpected, is permitted.

Explaining Why Masina’s Morocco Call-Up Is Allowed

In the September of 2020, FIFA’s 70th Congress met virtually. One of the topics discussed and amended surrounded a player’s ability to switch their international teams.

The rule now states that if, prior to turning 21, a player has played three or fewer matches for an international team in non-final competitive matches at the senior level, then he can switch his international team identity. Before the rule change, the law said one competitive senior international appearance is all it takes for a player to be bound to an international team for life.

Masina played six times for Italy’s Under-21 side. However, he never made a senior appearance for the Azzurri – meaning he was eligible to declare for another nation’s international team if, of course, he had a second recognized nationality. If he makes an appearance for Morocco during the international break, he will officially be bound to them for the rest of his career.

This scenario is almost identical to Jack Grealish’s. Masina is Moroccan-born but Italian raised. Grealish is English-born but with significant Irish heritage. Both played for one of their eligibilities growing up, but ultimately switched and declared loyalty to their birth nations at the senior level. It is not done too frequently, but it is not unheard of either.

Masina Made A Shrewd Choice 

Masina now has an increased chance of playing in major international competitions. Even as he is currently in a thrilling promotion race with Watford, being able to compete on the international stage will provide more uncharted footballing territory for Masina to explore.

And, simply stated, Masina has a significantly better chance of playing consistent international football with Morocco than he does with Italy. The North African nation is currently 33rd in the FIFA world rankings. Italy is number 10. 

Considering Masina is the only true left-back on the squad list for the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers, his services in the starting eleven will likely be necessary. 

Overall, Masina has been deserving of a senior international call-up – even if he has not been the most consistent of performers. All things considered, Watford have been notably better since his return from injury. High-profile international action can also provide a player with much-needed boosts in confidence and form. Fortunately, Masina will be able to ply his trade for an international team that will be pursuing a likely spot at next year’s World Cup.

Jeremy Ngakia: The Young Star Waiting For His Time To Shine

When Jeremy Ngakia elected to not renew his West Ham United contract, David Moyes and many Hammers supporters were frustrated. The now 20-year-old signed for Watford on a free transfer in the summer. Even though he had only started five matches for Moyes, those matches were consecutive – partly done to try to convince him to extend his stay at the London Stadium. This season has proved that Watford were shrewd in securing his signature – even if he is not currently a consistent starter. 

Femenia’s Success Keeping Ngakia Sidelined

For the first 18 matches of the current campaign, Adam Masina was in the treatment room with a tendon injury. The Hornets’ clear-cut first two full-back choices, once Masina was injured, were Ngakia and Kiko Femenia. Both are right-backs by trade.

Vladimir Ivic, the head coach at the time, knew both right-backs’ attacking tendencies were perfect for his wing-back-requiring formations. Ngakia was primarily deployed in his natural right-defensive role, whereas Femenia was usually put on the left. 

When Masina returned, which nearly perfectly coincided with the appointment of Xisco Munoz, one of Ngakia or Femenia had to make way. As impressively as Femenia was playing on the left, starting a true left-back was optimal. Ngakia was the player to lose his spot – but at no fault of his own.

Femenia has simply been too good to drop. He performed well as a left-back, but he emerged as a player-of-the-season candidate in his preferred right-back position. His overlapping runs with Sarr and threatening attacking play, in conjunction with solid defending, have made him impossible to keep out of the starting eleven. Unfortunately for Ngakia, Femenia’s stellar form comes at the price of significantly decreased minutes. The Englishman’s quality, however, should not be forgotten during his spell behind the Spaniard. 

Ngakia Stood Out When Called Upon

After 37 matches, Ngakia has started 18 times, in addition to making six substitute appearances. 16 of those starts came in the first 22 matches of the campaign. 

Following the first few matches of the season, Ngakia was one of the Hornets’ best performers. His threatening attacking dribbles, which included noteworthy lateral changes of pace, called for excitement whenever the ball was at his feet.

The youngster also has considerable pace, yet he is not weak either. Overall, the defender is very well rounded and up to the league’s physicality despite his age. His attacking prowess means he can effectively contribute as a right-midfielder if necessary.  

Ngakia oozed with quality when on the pitch, but ultimately, it was Femenia’s experience and added composure that saw Ngakia relegated to the sidelines. As previously stated, Femenia has beyond justified Xisco’s choice to start him at right-back: he and Sarr give Watford what is proving to be the league’s most dangerous right-side. Ngakia is doing nothing wrong and more than deserves to be a promotion-fighting starter – he is just unfortunate to be behind an extremely in-form Femenia. 

Player For The Future

Ngakia does for sure have room to improve – as do almost all 20-year-old footballers. But, the Hornets have no reason to worry if Ngakia does need to be called upon to start yet again this season. He is more than capable of sufficiently fitting in. 

As a youngster, Ngakia knows starting minutes will come in the future. Femenia is now 30-years-old, so it is not as if the Spaniard will still be Watford’s starting right-back in a few years. Ngakia’s performances show he is already able to be a starter. With more training, more cameos off of the bench, and even scattered starts, Ngakia’s limit is the sky. There are numerous reasons why Moyes yearned for him to sign a new contract. 

Watford’s future is unknown. The Club currently sit in the driver’s seat for the second automatic promotion spot, but anything can happen. Regardless of whether Watford get promoted or not, Ngakia has a future at Vicarage Road. His quality is there for all to see. His chances to shine will come. Whether his next breakthrough occurs in the Championship or the Premier League remains to be seen. 

Masina’s Monumental Free Kick: Goalkeeping Error Or Stroke Of Class?

Half of injury time had been played. Francisco Sierralta’s own goal was cancelled out by Nathaniel Chalobah’s phenomenal finish over 75-match-minutes earlier. The clash looked set to end in a draw, even after Ismaila Sarr was fouled just outside the top-right corner of the box. Watford only had a free kick. Cardiff would not have been the most worried: after all, the last time the Hornets scored directly from a free kick was in the April of 2016. 

Adam Masina, who had an otherwise quiet match, decided it was time to lift the curse. Following a half-step back and three strides forward, the left-back smashed the ball as hard as he could at the center of the net. Dillon Phillips, the Cardiff keeper, awkwardly dove as the cannon of a shot grazed his right bicep before slamming into the back of the net. The following celebration was the most passionate of the season – and rightfully so. 

But, was the curse-lifting goal a strike of quality, or did the Hornets get lucky (not that anything could change the magnitude, importance, and joy of the goal)? 

Should The Goal Primarily Be Called A Goalkeeping Error?

Phillips has performed well for Cardiff since first taking over for Alex Smithies following an injury. In 9 league appearances prior to the clash against Watford, Phillips conceded four times and kept five clean sheets. Heading into the match, the Cardiff goalkeeper was in fine form. 

Of course, he will have wanted to do better to keep out the free kick – especially considering the ball struck the center of the net. And, as the ball did brush off his bicep, it is evident a save was not the most impossible of tasks from the strike. Simply stated, some other keepers in the Championship likely would have kept the ball out of the net, given the shot’s central placement.

Further, the way Phillips set up his wall was too picturesque and not precise. A three-person wall looks good and is expected, but the goalkeeper did not ensure it was in a perfect position. At the moment Masina shoots, Phillips’s line-of-sight with the ball is blocked by the wall – particularly Will Vaulks. 

The issue from the slight misplacement of the wall was compounded by Phillips’s first step. As his left-hand side of the goal was completely open, he shifted his weight in that direction.  So, when Masina’s shot went back across the direction Phillips was falling in, all he could do was flail his arm. 

So, the main reason for Phillips not saving the ball goes down to his first step making his weight lean in the wrong direction and obstructing his view of the ball. But, perhaps Masina knew this movement was inevitable, and thus hit his shot accordingly.  

Masina’s Smack Of Superb Quality

Even though Phillips will have wanted to do much better, nothing can be taken away from Masina’s strike. The goal did have a goalkeeping error, but Masina deserves more credit than Phillips does blame.

Firstly, the pace the ball was hit at would make even the best of goalkeepers fearful. As he admitted Will Hughes told him, getting the ball on target was a must, even if it meant sacrificing perfect placement. So, Masina knew his best shot at scoring was power instead of top-corner precision, so he did just that. 

And, despite the strike going into the center of the net, accuracy was still needed. The ball was less than an arm’s length away from Vaulks (the player who was obstructing the goalkeeper’s vision). The ball then flew less than one meter away from Sierralta’s head – making Phillips’s movement even more unnatural because he thought a redirection was imminent.

The in-swinging curl of the ball, combined with the multiple near-misses, high velocity, and placement back where the keeper was coming from, made the free kick too difficult to save for Phillips. If Masina shot further to the right, the wall would have blocked the strike. More to the left, and Sean Morrison was there to clear it off the line. 

Phillips could have certainly done better, but nothing should be taken away from Masina’s powerful hit and particular placement (or lack thereof) to lift Watford’s free-kick curse – and he could not have chosen a better time to do so. 

Tom Cleverley: Not Abdi – Yet Sufficiently Similar

Almen Abdi: it is safe to say the vast majority of Watford supporters have fond memories when they hear that name. He is Watford’s most recent direct free-kick scorer (a goal that occurred almost five years ago). The former Switzerland international player’s attacking threat from the midfield made him a fan favorite. 

At times this season, some may think the Hornets would be better off with a player identical to Abdi. Although that is true, the Hornets do indeed have a player who is not completely different – but offers even more too. 

Abdi’s Vicarage Road Success

Now retired following a spell with Sheffield Wednesday, Abdi initially joined Watford, from Udinese, on loan for the 2012/13 campaign. In the Pozzos’ first year of owning the Hornets, Abdi was an instant success. Including the three Promotion Playoff matches, the attacking midfielder scored 12 goals and notched nine assists in 42 appearances.

The Hornets subsequently purchased him on a permanent basis. But, Abdi’s 2013/14 campaign was largely interrupted by injuries, and he only managed to play 16 matches in all competitions. The following season, however, Abdi was back to being one of the Club’s most influential players.

In the 2014/15 promotion campaign, Abdi did not perfectly replicate his 2012/13 goal-contribution output. As impressive as nine goals and two assists from 32 appearances is for a midfielder, that output does not justify the true influence he had in the Club’s promotion season.

Apart from his set-piece brilliance (something no Watford player has replicated since his departure), Abdi was pivotal to so many of the Hornets’ attacking movements. Even with Deeney and Ighalo in the best form of their careers, Abdi’s vision and creativity were essential to Watford’s attacking juggernaut. 

In the Hornets’ first season in the Premier League, Abdi played 32 matches and scored twice. Although his performances were decent (but not overly impressive), Watford sold him to Sheffield Wednesday. The Club brought in Roberto Pereyra to try and fill the attacking-midfield void, but ultimately, Watford have not been able to get a truly like-for-like replacement since. 

However, this season, Watford do have an Abdi-esque player. Well, to an extent – the nearly perfect extent.

Tom Cleverley Providing Necessary Glimpses Of Similarity – And So Much More

When Deeney has been absent, Tom Cleverley has taken the captain’s armband and performed admirably. The central midfielder joined Watford, from Everton, in 2017. His first three seasons at Vicarage Road were largely hindered by injuries. By Project Restart, when he returned from a heel injury, he was firmly behind Will Hughes, Etienne Capoue, and Abdoulaye Doucoure in the pecking order. So, even though Cleverley’s experience and talent were known, he gradually became a slightly forgotten man. This season has revitalized his career. 

In 30 league appearances, the 31-year-old has scored four times and assisted two goals. When playing in Xisco Munoz’s 4-3-3 formation, the former Red Devil is the midfielder highest up the pitch. This was even the case in any of the other countless formations the Hornets have attempted this season.

From the advanced-midfield role, Cleverley sometimes provides the creative spark Abdi became known for. Cleverley’s vision and composure ensure he does not give the ball away during positive attacking movements. He is the Club’s leading central-midfield goal-scorer this season, with twice as many goals as second-placed Hughes. 

Before his recent minor ligament injury, Cleverley thoroughly usurped set-piece duties and started to look more dangerous with his deliveries. He has been the preferred set-piece taker for the majority of the season, but that preference recently became a practical exclusivity. Although the Club’s direct free-kick curse has not yet been lifted, Cleverley started to come a lot closer to scoring from the free-kicks. His corner kicks were more sparsely hitting the first-defender – a previously way-too-frequent occurrence from the Hornets’ corner routines. 

So, at times, Cleverley provides glimpses of what the Club has missed since the Abdi days. But, of course, Cleverley brings other talents to the table too. His defensive acumen is significantly better than Abdi’s, meaning Cleverley’s high-pressing from the attacking midfield is more dangerous than Abdi’s was. The former Premier League winner’s leadership traits have also made significant positive contributions to the Hornets this season. He is reliable no matter where he needs to play in the midfield, defensive or attacking-minded.

Philip Zinckernagel also has similar traits to Abdi. His delicate, genius, slipped-in assist to Andre Gray against Wycombe showed the similar creative aspects are there. And, with Cleverley sidelined for the next few matches, Zinckernagel will continue to have the chance to showcase his talents – and from there, further similarities may be able to be drawn. 

Overall, Abdi is a player hard to replicate. But, when the Hornets have needed a carbon copy, Cleverley has come close enough. And, of course, Cleverley offers many other different, necessary talents to the Club as well.

Defending Attacking-Mindedly: Xisco Munoz’s Latest Tactical Masterclass

Heading into the clash against Nottingham Forest, Watford were without many key players. Dan Gosling and Tom Cleverley were sidelined due to injury concerns, while Nathaniel Chalobah missed out thanks to a two-match ban. Carlos Sanchez had only just signed for the Hornets. So, Will Hughes was the Hornets’ only (senior) central midfielder with Championship minutes available for the match. 

Philip Zinckernagel played in a less-natural central-midfield position against Wycombe the match prior. Ken Sema slotted into the heart of the pitch on three occasions for Udinese last season. Nonetheless, the lack of true midfield depth appeared destined to haunt the Hornets. However, Xisco Munoz called for familiar, yet new, tactics – a genius choice which prominently helped Watford beat Chris Hughton’s side.

Tactics Temporarily Tweaked For The Better

Watford have picked up 18 out of 21 possible points since switching to the 4-3-3 formation – a large reason why the central-midfielder lack of depth is problematic. Any sizeable veering from the successful formation would be risky and most likely costly. So, even with a lack of true central midfielders available, Xisco fielded a variant of the 4-3-3 anyway.

The formation used can be better described as a 4-1-4-1, with Will Hughes playing in a deep-lying central-defensive midfield role. Zinckernagel and Joao Pedro played as the attacking midfielders. The change in formation was not much of a formation change at all: the 4-1-4-1 is simply a 4-3-3 with an attacking-minded midfield triangle (as opposed to a less polarized/flatter midfield). 

One key benefit to fielding Pedro and Zinckernagel as attacking midfielders is overlapping runs were more encouraged. Whenever Watford got numbers forward, having five attackers on the pitch helped the Hornets have more intricacy in attacking movements. Admittedly, Watford only scored once, but a handful of other decent chances were made – which was more than good enough considering a new, make-shift tactic was being used for the first time. After all, Pedro had never played as a central midfielder before the match. 

The main reason why having Pedro and Zinckernagel as attacking midfielders was tactically genius, however, is highlighted in the manner that the Hornets played without the ball. 

Midfield Tempo Nullification

James Garner returned to Vicarage Road for the first time since his loan with Watford was terminated by Manchester United. The highly-rated midfielder has performed considerably well since joining Nottingham Forest at the end of January. Hughton’s preferred 4-2-3-1 formation allows Garner more time on the ball from a defensive-midfield role than he was offered with the Hornets. Xisco knew Hughton wanted to use their two deeper-lying midfielders to set the tempo of the match. Lining up in a 4-1-4-1 nullified that threat.

For spells in the second half, Nottingham Forest were in the ascendancy. But, for the majority of the match, Watford were dictating the play. The key reason for the Hornets’ controlling of the match is that Garner and Ryan Yates (who was subbed off in the 57th minute for Cafu) were unable to get the time on the ball they thrive off of.

By fielding two attacking midfielders, Garner and Yates were almost always suffocated by pressure as soon as they picked up possession. The midfield triangle fielded by Hughton’s side was nullified because the points of Watford’s midfield triangle matched up with the opposition’s. This did certainly give their attacking midfielder Filip Krovinovic more space to roam, but the ever-reliable Hughes dealt with him well. The subtle staggering of the midfield made all the difference in the match.

Defending Offensively 

In being forced to start two attackers in the midfield, Xisco knew the starting eleven was inevitably going to have a forward-thinking mindset. With five attackers on the pitch, the squad is naturally going to seek to pick up the ball in dangerous positions through pressing, rather than sit back and soak up the pressure. Through Pedro and Zinckernagel, Watford halted Nottingham Forest’s engine. By using an attacking-minded line-up and having the make-shift midfielders closing down the opposition’s defensive midfielders, the Hornets prevented Nottingham Forest from registering a single shot on target.

Proof Xisco called for an attacking-minded defensive tactic was when Sanchez entered the fray. “La Roca,” as he is nicknamed, almost exclusively played as a defensive midfielder throughout his career. But, when he came on for Andre Gray (and Pedro was moved to the central-forward position), Sanchez did not drop back to play alongside Hughes. He did not change the direction of the Hornets’ midfield triangle. From start to finish, Xisco ensured Garner and Co. could not dictate the tempo – exactly what Hughton knew he needed his side to do to get a result. 

The Hornets were forced into making midfield changes. There is a chance that the 4-1-4-1 is not utilized again this season. Still, Xisco cleverly used his limited resources and put together a subtle, yet applaudable, tactical masterclass. The Spaniard should use this match as an example that slight formational tweaks (while still sticking to a variant of the 4-3-3) can make all the difference in the push for promotion. 

The Lerma Lesson

In Watford’s recent defeat at Bournemouth, Jefferson Lerma may have “cheated” (the word being thrown around) and played the match in an immature, disgraceful manner. The referee may have made some questionable decisions. But, none of that means Watford are not to primarily blame for the result. Bournemouth and Lerma knew the Hornets were the stronger team in better form, so they knew the best way to win was by ensuring the focus of the match went elsewhere. Fortunately for the Cherries, Watford took the bait.

If the two clubs are to clash in the Promotion Playoffs, there is every reason to suspect Bournemouth will play the same way. The Hornets need to learn from the recent defeat if they are to achieve promotion, especially if the Cherries are in their path once more.

Lerma’s Antics Detestable – But Exactly What Bournemouth Needed 

Lerma hit the ground easily on many occasions. The main moment of controversy prior to stoppage time involved him and Nathaniel Chalobah. Both challenged for a ball in the air, to which Lerma whined after feeling the slightest of contact with Chalobah’s hand. The former Chelsea player resultantly misses the Hornets’ two subsequent fixtures, as the yellow card brandished was his 10th of the season.

Hornets players inevitably, and rightfully, complained whenever Lerma fell for the rest of the match. Lerma and his actions became the focal point of the game – exactly what Bournemouth wanted. As poor as his actions were, he ensured the Hornets’ quality could not come to the fore. It is a dirty way of playing football, but that does not mean it is not allowed – even if it should be outlawed. The antics were detestable, but from Jonathan Woodgate’s point-of-view, it is exactly what he desired. 

Watford’s Response Gave Bournemouth The Advantage

The resulting free-kick from Chalobah’s yellow card resulted in Bournemouth scoring the only goal of the match. Even if Lerma over-exaggerated and the official made the wrong decision, the Hornets only have themselves to blame for conceding. The free-kick was taken from Bournemouth’s defensive half, meaning there was especially no excuse for such poor marking. The defense switched off and remained stagnant, giving Arnaut Danjuma a clear sight at goal – with the assist coming directly from the set-piece. Watford only have themselves to point the finger at for conceding the goal. Switching off in the manner they did has no excuse. 

The Hornets chased the match from that point forward. Still, the main focus of the match was on Lerma and his antics. It was hard for Watford to build positive momentum when the focus was not consistently on the football. In the 97th minute, Joao Pedro made a poorly-timed challenge on Lerma, resulting in his second yellow card of the match. 

Lerma’s antics slowed the match down the way he would have wanted them to. There is no claiming Lerma did the “right thing,” and there is no argument he played how he “should play.” Still, the bottom line is he did play in a condemnable manner. He was Bournemouth’s key to halting Watford’s progress. By changing the focus of the match, he got the visitors to take the bait. It is a cheap strategy, but clearly, it worked for the hosts. 

Watford Need To Focus Solely On The Football

Watford undoubtedly have one of the best, if not the best, squad in the Championship when it comes to individual-by-individual talent. Bournemouth knew their best chance at beating Watford was disrupting the flow of the football, as letting the game naturally play out would give Watford the upper hand. The Hornets’ success in the 4-3-3 likely would not be halted by the Cherries if external factors were not used.

Lerma was successful at being the “external factor.” Other teams want Watford to be distracted from the football. Anything to disrupt quality from coming to the fore is going to be sought by certain oppositions. By letting Lerma’s antics and controversy distract them from composed, methodical playing, the Hornets minimized their chances of success. 

Other clubs (such as Luton Town near the end of the season) might try similar, cheap tactics to get the better of Watford. If the Hornets come up against Bournemouth in the Promotion Playoffs, controversy and further antics are inevitable.

Watford need to let the football do the talking. The players need to take their anger and frustration out by playing with more intensity, not by coming face to face off the ball with the opposition. The last laugh will go Watford’s way if they keep their composure and let the talent, quality, and tactics conquer the disgraceful actions. Complaining and switching off is what rivals want to see. Other teams know Watford want a match where the football, not antics, does the talking, so it is the Hornets’ responsibility to ensure other factors do not change their focus. 

Lerma’s antics are not justified, but the Hornets let the focus of the match slip away from them. The Lerma lesson is about keeping composure, even when immediate retaliation is desired. The antics did not directly give Bournemouth the advantage: the Hornets’ disorderly response did. Watford need winning football, and nothing else, to be their form of revenge.