Watford Opinions

Analyzing Watford’s Recent Transfer Mistake

28 appearances. 19 goals. 18 assists. Six penalties won. One dream. Philip Zinckernagel’s 2020 campaign with Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien (Norwegian top-flight) earned him plenty of interest from clubs in more prominent European leagues. Watford snapped him up in the recent January transfer window as his contract expired – a move widely accepted as a brilliant piece of business.

Upon joining, Zinckernagel said, “I always dreamed of playing in the big leagues; the top five in Spain, Italy, England…for me, Watford belong in the Premier League.” Now that the Hornets achieved the promotion he hoped for when joining, the Dane, who wore the number seven kit at Vicarage Road, had the opportunity to make his Premier League dreams come true. Watford would have tremendously benefitted from having a versatile, creative player such as Zinckernagel in their squad. However, a recent transfer decision put Zinckernagel’s dreams on hold, something which could prove to be a nightmare for Watford for multiple reasons.

Already Showing Signs of Excellence on Loan

In Zinckernagel’s first two appearances for Nottingham Forest after signing on loan, he has already made an unmissable impact. Within minutes of coming on in his club debut against Coventry City, he whipped in a teasing corner kick which almost found its way into the back of the net. His second match for Chris Hughton’s side was a Carabao Cup clash against Bradford. The 26-year-old provided two pinpoint assists for Joao Carvalho. The first of Zinckernagel’s two assists was so impressive that the squad ran over to him, instead of Carvalho, to celebrate the goal.

A cameo off of the bench against Coventry City and a match against a League Two side is nowhere near enough to conclude Zinckernagel is guaranteed to have a phenomenal season and would have for sure been one of Watford’s key players. However, the glimpses of excellence he has shown since departing suggest his adaptation to the English style of play is nearing completion.

Versatility and Creativity Will Be Missed

The feature of Zinckernagel’s playing style which Watford will miss the most is his phenomenal ability to create chances out of thin air regardless of where he is lined up on the pitch. Even though Zinckernagel found his success with Bodo/Glimt as a right-winger, he never got to play in his preferred position for the Hornets as, of course, Ismaila Sarr started every match as the Club’s star right-winger. Thus, Zinckernagel primarily played as one of the Hornets’ central midfielders, a role in which, even though he was not the most natural in when it came to defensive duties, he found considerable success.

Despite only making nine starts and 20 total appearances for Watford in the Championship, he was the Club’s joint-leading assister alongside Ken Sema with five. Zinckernagel averaged one goal contribution per 153 minutes, a resounding return for a player not in his most natural position.

His creative eye, whether deployed out wide in his preferred role or in the center of the park, is a feature that is arguably unsurpassed by anyone currently at Vicarage Road. Even if Zinckernagel were to only have occasional starting minutes and primarily feature as a “super substitute,” that extra bit of flair and intricacy could have proven to be decisive in the fine margins that outline a relegation battle.

Ideal Sarr Replacement for AFCON

With Sarr likely absent around the start of 2022 for a chunk of matches due to AFCON, the Hornets will be without their star player. This would have given Zinckernagel the perfect opportunity to play in his best position. Watford would, in turn, finally get to see their most creative player line up in his most prolific position. He would probably not fully fill the void left by Sarr, though he would provide a different type of option and more than sufficiently get the job done at making the damage of Sarr’s absence minimal.

Now, unless a new signing arrives, Watford will have to start a player out of position to fill Sarr’s place. Keeping Zinckernagel would have provided the Hornets a brilliant rotational player who could push for consistent starting minutes in multiple positions and provide a threatening creative eye. Instead, he will spend another season in the second tier, likely performing really well to give Watford a constant reminder they should have let his top-flight dreams come true as soon as possible. Maybe Watford will not end up missing him in the slightest, though as of now, it is hard to see a scenario where the Hornets do not rue his departure at least once. Hopefully, for the Vicarage Road faithful, he will once more don the Watford colors in the 2022/23 campaign.

Watford’s Realistic Season Outlook: Relegation-Bound or Surprise Package?

With the Premier League season about to kick off, Watford supporters have a lot to be excited about. Unfortunately, that excitement comes at the expense of a reality that this season has the potential to be a catastrophe. The Hornets are currently relegation favorites alongside the two other recently promoted teams, and understandably so. Nonetheless, even with Watford backed for the drop, the Club’s ceiling for success is considerably high.

Decent Possibility of Relegation Cannot Be Overlooked

As exhilarating as the 2020/21 promotion campaign was for the Hornets, fans must go into the season understanding that expectations should not be sky-high. Success this campaign is finishing 17^th. That is the primary target.

The truth is, after spending last season in the Championship and the financial impact of COVID, Watford are unable to spend as much money as some other clubs in a similar position. Crystal Palace, for example, who are also in the relegation race, have spent nearly £40 million on their defense alone. Thus, in terms of recruitment, Watford have to rely on players who are not necessarily destined to hit the ground running.

As much of a revelation as Xisco Munoz proved to be last season, he is still a very inexperienced head coach who has never had to face such difficult opposition week in and week out. Even with the unavoidable handcuffs of financial limitations, it is still fair to question recruitment and prospects for tactical success.

Most Watford fans are not ignoring they need to brace for possible relegation. People can raise questions about defensive depth, where goals will come from, and whether the midfield is strong enough. However, such questions and uncertainties surrounding the squad and head coach are the exact reasons why the Watford faithful can still hold onto hope for a surprisingly impressive campaign.

Safety and Beyond Can Be Achieved Through the Question Marks

The relegation race is wide open. Cases can be made for why the three promoted teams, as well as Newcastle, Crystal Palace, Southampton, Wolves, Burnley, and Brighton, should all be worried about relegation. So, the Hornets can reasonably hope to be propelled forward by the shortcomings of other clubs (to an extent).

Within the Watford squad, the questions about whether there is enough depth and sufficient talent may very well turn out to be answered with a resounding “yes” instead of the feared “no.”

At the back, Francisco Sierralta and William Troost-Ekong will be key to the Hornet’s success yet again after playing a key role in equaling the Championship’s best-ever defensive record. Neither have played Premier League minutes, which may be seen as worrisome. However, especially considering Sierralta’s trajectory, there is a decent chance the gamble of starting them together next season can yield tremendous dividends. If Danny Rose gets anywhere near his form of old, which preseason suggests is possible, he will be a player who performs at a level far above that of a relegation-worried left-back. Admittedly, the lack of Premier League experience at the heart of the defense can backfire. But, simply put, it is impossible to know precisely how Troost-Ekong and Sierralta will perform in the top-flight, and that not knowing is exactly why the fear can be balanced out with the excitement of potential success.

In the midfield, new arrivals Peter Etebo, Juraj Kucka, and Imran Louza could very well prove to be a formidable force to be reckoned with, especially the latter. Preseason showed Etebo can be more than effective as a number six or a ball-carrying number eight, whereas Louza has simply looked of a special class whenever on the ball. Domingos Quina may also prove to have a breakout season in the top flight following his La Liga loan. Again, as is the case with the defense, these possibilities for tremendous success may very well crash and burn. While it is impossible to determine exactly what will occur, there is still valid reason to hope that what will eventually pan out is the best positive outcome.

The attack is where the most surprise may come from. Ismaila Sarr will of course play a huge role in the Hornets’ push for survival – that is one of the few guarantees of the campaign barring any extreme surprises. However, the likes of Joao Pedro, Cucho Hernandez, and Emmanuel Dennis could prove to explode into fine goalscoring form. All are young players (Dennis the oldest at 23-years-old) who have already shown glimpses of prolific excellence in the early stages of their careers. Will they hit the ground running in the leap to the best domestic league in the world? Maybe. What cannot be denied is they all have the tools to be tremendously successful, so, yet again, there is reason to hold onto hope that the risk of relying on these younger players will pay off. If Joshua King finds his form of old after a lackluster 2020/21 campaign, Watford’s attack could prove to be one of the league’s more formidable forces.

And tactically, Xisco’s relative inexperience can have its positives. Firstly, last season, despite his apparently odd tactics, he got the promotion job done. His newness to coaching also makes him naturally less likely to feel married to a given system, unlike Nigel Pearson who refused to shift away from the 4-2-3-1 when form started to drift in the relegation campaign. So, Xisco will be willing to experiment to find the right formulas when necessary. Again, like most things Watford this season, that could backfire and he may not last the entire season. Nonetheless, the possibility Watford are able to find success trusting him once more is very real.

The Likely Season Forecast

The two keywords throughout this article have been “can” and “may.” Predicting exactly what will happen is impossible, though speculating about the reasons to hope for the best while bracing for the worst is much easier.

The likeliest scenario is a couple of the questions surrounding the squad are answered positively while the others have an alarming conclusion. Watford supporters, who have every reason to hope for the best, should expect to be in a tight relegation battle for the majority of the season. Between having players who have the capability to explode into stardom and other teams also being in positions to struggle, the hopes of finishing 17^th are real and reasonable. It may be risker to cling to aspirations that the Club will climb up the table. Yet, all things considered, such a mindset is understandable.

Watford’s Little-Known Goalkeeping Gem

Between Ben Foster and Daniel Bachmann, the Hornets have two strong goalkeepers battling it out for the number one spot ahead of the Premier League campaign, with Bachmann appearing to have the upper hand. Highly-rated Pontus Dahlberg earned a loan to Doncaster Rovers to get consistent first-team minutes in England in hopes he can develop into Watford’s number one in the future. However, beyond the bigger goalkeeping names at the Club, there is one who has been sent out on a non-league loan who, despite being just 17-years-old, is already showing signs of having top-tier talent in the distant future.

Alfie Marriott: Watford’s Future Number One?

Alfie Marriott joined Watford in 2012 and has been impressing at the youth levels ever since. His name became better known to many Watford supporters in the 2021 FA Youth Cup, with Marriott making three phenomenal saves in a clash against Newcastle United’s youth setup.

To further Marriott’s progress, Watford opted to loan him to Kings Langley for the 2021/22 campaign. Non-league loans such as this provide a prime opportunity to play consistent first-team football and, more importantly for a young goalkeeper, provide experience in matches against considerably physical opposition.

Marriott briskly got the opportunity to play his parent club, as a Watford XI faced Kings Langley in a preseason fixture. Although Watford fielded a squad filled with youth players, first-teamers such as Andre Gray, Stipe Perica, and Marc Navarro all featured. Adlene Guedioura also played for the Hornets. And, despite Watford having a £20+ million strike force, Marriott showed tremendous signs of promise when keeping the Hornets’ attack at bay.

Necessary Shot-Stopping Abilities

While football continues to evolve, and especially the position of goalkeeper, the main goal of the person in between the sticks, as has always and will always be the case, is, of course, to prevent the ball from going into the net by any means necessary. So, to be contracted by Watford at 17-years-old, good shot-stopping abilities are essential. This is obviously the case with any goalkeeper playing at a high level. Marriott’s shot-saving skills, as easily proven by his FA Youth Cup performance against Newcastle, are for sure applaudable and above-par for most teenagers at his level.

The video below shows his smart positioning and quick thinking to make a good save on a low Gray shot in the recent preseason fixture.

The next video shows Marriott making an impressive penalty save on Gray (though, unfortunately for him, the follow-up attempt went right into Gray’s path).

Sublime Confidence and Talent Coming Off of His Line

The part of Marriott’s game that sets him apart from the typical good, young shot-stopper is the confidence he plays with and his shrewd positioning. Sometimes, Watford goalkeepers are criticized for their decision-making when it comes to coming off of their lines on opposition counterattacks or crosses. Despite his young age, in the fixture against Watford, Marriott commanded the box and played with the head of a much more experienced goalkeeper. Such decision-making issues did not surround his performance.

The next three videos show Marriott coming off of his line and calmly dealing with the danger despite tricky through balls and close-by opposition attackers.

The following video shows Marriott’s composure when dealing with a low cross under pressure.

Verdict

Admittedly, a sample of a FA Youth Cup match and a friendly against a Watford XI is not enough to come to definitive conclusions about a given player’s future. Nonetheless, in the two fixtures, Marriott has shown sufficient shot-stopping capabilities and, more notably for a player of his age, confidence and courage when the ball comes toward the box. With very little hesitation to his play, Marriott is showing the right tools necessary to make it at the top level in years to come. He has a tremendous amount of work to do, as all aspirational 17-year-olds do, though the foundation is already starting to be solidified.

Watford’s Ignored Center-Back Concerns

Last season, Watford tied the record for the best-ever EFL Championship defense, conceding just 30 goals in 46 matches. Thus, upon promotion to the Premier League, a safe assumption seems to be that the center of the defense does not need attention. Considering William Troost-Ekong and Francisco Sierralta joined after the Club’s 2019/20 relegation, a case can be made that the Hornets’ back line has improved since their last top-flight season. Nonetheless, the conclusion that center-back attention is not pivotal is likely a wrongful one.

Watford’s Under-Acknowledged Center-Back Shortage

The Hornets only have five senior center-backs: Troost-Ekong, Sierralta, Christian Kabasele, Craig Cathcart, and Mattie Pollock. Five center-backs should be sufficient, but considering Pollock, 19-years-old, might be loaned out and the jump from League Two to the top-flight is nearly impossible to adjust to in one offseason, the Club effectively have four center-backs with sufficient experience to play consistent top-flight football (to be clear, Pollock definitely has the potential to eventually reach that level, though assuming he can do so immediately after only ever playing in League Two is a risky assumption for the hierarchy to make).

Cathcart, now 32-years-old, might be nearing the swan song of his career. He has looked alarmingly off the pace in preseason, most notably assisting Stevenage with an atrocious pass across the backline to allow their first-minute opener in a friendly. The experienced Northern Ireland international team player should be able to compose himself better in the top-flight, though there is a slight cause for concern about his readiness for the new season when he is called upon.

Kabasele missed a large chunk of last season with a knee injury, and despite starting the Club’s final two Championship matches against Brentford and Swansea, the strength of his recovery remains to be seen. However, the 30-year-old should be able to be relied upon when necessary in the upcoming campaign.

Sierralta and Troost-Ekong emerged as Xisco’s first-choice center-backs, though neither has played a Premier League minute in their respective careers. Sierralta’s improbable rise to Vicarage Road stardom makes his considerable lack of top-flight minutes easy to gloss over, while his European top-flight readiness is not yet known considering there are only 265 top-flight minutes to his name to examine from.

Troost-Ekong, despite performing well in the Serie A with Udinese, is not necessarily a guarantee to perform well in the Premier League. Furthermore, he is likely to miss out on a chunk of matches in the heart of the season to participate with Nigeria in AFCON.

Thus, each of the Hornets’ five center-backs has question marks to their names, even if the uncertainties are not the most obvious. And, considering Pollock is potentially leaving on loan or not yet ready for Premier League minutes and Troost-Ekong is destined to miss time during the season, there is already a portion of the campaign where the Hornets will need to effectively rely on three center-backs.

If injuries hit – which must be prepared for – the Hornets may be left in a situation where they have no choice but to rely on two center-backs for a long stretch of matches. If even just two injuries hit and, for example, Troost-Ekong is at AFCON, the Hornets may be left in a situation where a player from a different position needs to line up in the heart of the defense, which would be catastrophic in the Premier League.

Simply stated, the Hornets may have had a phenomenal defensive record last campaign, though defensive brilliance is far from a guarantee this season considering a shortage in depth and the question marks surrounding many center-backs’ names. Furthermore, the Hornets’ stellar defensive record from their brief spell in the Championship is likely misleading when considering how they actually performed.

Expected Statistics Suggest Watford’s Record-Breaking Defense Was Not Overly Impressive

Across both Vladimir Ivic and Xisco Munoz’s reigns as Watford head coach last season, the Hornets conceded an impressively low number of goals. However, the statistic which may be driving Watford’s choice to not prioritize signing a center-back this transfer window is in fact blatantly misleading. Even though the Hornets equaled the league’s best-ever defensive season, Expected Statistics (source: infogol) show Watford had a considerable amount of luck on their side as well.

Watford conceded six fewer goals than the next best defensive team (Norwich City) last season. But, when it comes to Expected Goals Against, the Hornets conceded six more expected goals than the expected best defensive team in the league (Brentford). With an Expected Goals Against Statistic of 47.3, the Hornets conceded 17.3 fewer times than statistics predicted.

Many factors play into all of the “Expected Statistics,” from poor finishing to luck to moments of brilliance. If the Hornets were to have an Expected Goals Against Statistic relatively near 30, then terms such as “luck” and “poor finishing from the opposition” could be ignored and the difference from reality could be attributed to natural variability. However, with a margin of 17.3 goals separating the reality from the statistically expected, the conclusion can be made with sufficient confidence that the Hornets were, statistically speaking, considerably lucky/blessed with poor finishing from the opposition on many occasions last season.

To provide comparison, Stoke City, who in reality conceded 52 goals, had a better Expected Goals Against Statistic (45.4) than Watford did. The Potters, unlike Watford, were unlucky, as their opposition scored at a considerably higher rate than expected.

The Hornets undeniably had an impressive season defensively last campaign regardless of what Expected Statistics say. What cannot be ignored, however, is a considerable amount of luck and frequent poor finishing from opposition statistically played into the record. In the Premier League, such luck and underperformance from the opposition in front of the net will not occur. So, if Watford are to be basing their lack of high-profile center-back recruitment on last season’s performance, then the hierarchy should perhaps reconsider where they allocate funds in the last month of the transfer window. Watford’s center-back department might have enough in it, though to say such soundness is anywhere near a guarantee would be a very bold and risky claim.

Predicting Watford’s Final Premier League Roster

With fewer than three weeks remaining until the Hornets kick off the season against Aston Villa and a bit over one month until the summer transfer window closes, the hierarchy at Vicarage Road know they need to start thinking about finalizing a 25-man roster. The criteria for a squad list is that under-21 players do not count as a part of the 25 and that there is a maximum of 17 players who are not considered “home-grown.”

After briefly discussing the players who departures seem likely for, a rundown of Watford’s predicted Premier League roster will be made.

Likely Departures

Pontus Dahlberg: the 22-year-old shot-stopper has a bright future ahead of him following multiple successful loans since his Watford arrival in 2018. However, with Daniel Bachmann and Ben Foster battling it out for the number one spot, and Rob Elliot extending his Vicarage Road stay to be the third-choice goalkeeper, another loan move is in the cards to give Dahlberg as many first-team minutes as possible.

Marc Navarro: having only made 13 Watford appearances since arriving in 2018 from Espanyol, the time has likely come for the Hornets and Navarro to part ways permanently. With Kiko Femenia and Jeremy Ngakia both ahead of the right-back in the pecking order, it is best for all parties to find the Spaniard a permanent departure.

Tom Dele-Bashiru: the 21-year-old looked as if he was destined to play a big role in the Hornets’ promotion quest until an injury in the fourth match of the season kept him sidelined for the rest of the campaign. The ever-improving youngster will benefit from a loan, preferably to the Championship, to regain fitness and get ready to compete for first-team Watford minutes in the 2022/23 season, regardless of what tier the Hornets are in.

Will Hughes: as unfortunate as it may be for Hornets’ supporters, a Hughes departure seems more probable than not. With a new contract still not being signed, if a reasonable offer comes in, Watford will feel as if they have no choice but to sell. Even with the likes of Imran Louza and Peter Etebo arriving, a replacement for Hughes should continue to be sought.

Andre Gray, Isaac Success, and Stipe Perica: all three fall into the same category. Following the arrivals of Joshua King, Ashley Fletcher, and Emmanuel Dennis, as well as the return of Cucho Hernandez from loan, the Hornets have no shortage of choices in the attack. With a Troy Deeney departure unlikely, especially considering the role he has played in preseason thus far while his true role ahead of next season is still yet to be determined, that leaves these three forwards extremely far down the pecking order. Minutes for all three at Vicarage Road will be few and far between, if not non-existent, so departures for all three, for all parties’ sake, will continue to be searched for.

Predicted Watford Squad List (With Key Notes)

Watford’s Potential 25-Man Roster

(Asterisk [*] denotes home-grown player)

Goalkeepers:

Daniel Bachmann*

Ben Foster*

Rob Elliot*

Defenders:

William Troost-Ekong*

Christian Kabasele

Francisco Sierralta

Craig Cathcart*

Adam Masina

Danny Rose*

Kiko Femenia

Midfielders:

Nathaniel Chalobah*

Imran Louza

Peter Etebo

Tom Cleverley*

Domingos Quina*

Dan Gosling*

Wingers/Strikers:

Ken Sema

Ismaila Sarr

Philip Zinckernagel

Joshua King*

Cucho Hernandez

Emmanuel Dennis

Ashley Fletcher*

Troy Deeney*

Notable Under-21 Players

Jeremy Ngakia

Joao Pedro

Kwadwo Baah

Dapo Mebude (expected to be loaned out – hopefully he has a speedy recovery from the injury he sustained against Stevenage)

Mattie Pollock (might be loaned out, though only having four center-backs in the 25-man squad suggests Pollock might stay for depth purposes)

On the predicted 25-man roster above, there are only 24 names. Thus, there is likely to be room for one more over-21 signature (perhaps the Will Hughes replacement or a fifth center-back). Meeting the home-grown quota is not going to be an issue, so targets from any league, as long as work-permit requirements are met, are able to arrive. A Philip Zinckernagel departure is also not entirely out of the question, so if he departs (as is the case if anyone else on the predicted over-21 roster does), two signings could be made.

As has been the case for a couple of weeks now, the Hornets’ transfer business is far from over. The last new pair of boots are likely yet to set foot in Hertfordshire. However, a significant influx of departures will be taking place between now and August 31^st.

Explaining Both Sides of Watford’s Potential Cryptocurrency Gamble

Watford’s recent announcement of their 2021/22 home kit coincided with the revealing of their new shirt sponsor. Resting across much of the front of the kit is a logo reading “Stake.com,” a Curacao-based online cryptocurrency casino. The crypto casino and Watford have struck a multi-year partnership agreement which has the potential to explode into the Club’s most valuable sponsorship deal. This transaction, however, is unlike most other sponsorship agreements to date. In partnering with a crypto casino, Watford themselves might have wagered a huge bet, one which could (if placed) pay immense dividends.

DISCLAIMER: this article is not intending to give financial advice. The purpose of writing this is to analyze both sides to a gamble Watford might be taking. If you are thinking of putting money into cryptocurrency, do lots of research on your own and weigh up your options before making a responsible decision. Do not let this article be the reason you choose/lean one way or the other.

The Chips Potentially on the Table

According to Adam Leventhal of The Athletic, the initial payment Stake.com has given Watford is around £5 million with performance bonuses. The report further said if Watford avoid relegation this season, then Stake.com will be paying Watford in excess of £6 million, thus beating the previous club-record sponsorship deal which Sportsbet.io had with the Hornets for both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 campaign.

The official Watford website says the agreement was “paid for in cryptocurrency.” That is where there is uncertainty, as it remains to be seen whether Watford immediately transferred the money into fiat money or kept it in the form of cryptocurrency. Both scenarios are analyzed in this article. If kept in cryptocurrency, the figure could potentially crash to zero, though it could also tremendously multiply. As in, simply explained, the £5 million worth of cryptocurrency Watford were paid, if they did not transfer the money into pound sterling, is unlikely to stay at a value of exactly £5 million.

The exact cryptocurrency the Club accepted is unclear, though considering the Club website highlighted how Stake.com accounted for “over five per cent of Bitcoin transactions worldwide” and Bitcoin’s popularity, it would not be a shock if Bitcoin was the cryptocurrency of choice (or a mix of Bitcoin and other large players in the cryptocurrency world for portfolio diversity purposes).

Watford Have Encountered Cryptocurrency Before

Before diving further into the forecast for Watford’s potential cryptocurrency investment/gamble/risk, it is important to note the Hornets have previously tapped into the world of cryptocurrency. In the 2019/20 campaign, the Hornets’ sleeve sponsor was indeed Bitcoin. The Club have also accepted Bitcoin as a way to purchase hospitality boxes and exclusive merchandise, as well as offered billboard-shoutout opportunities activated by cryptocurrency (as per Oliver Knight). Watford even previously launched a Bitcoin education website.

So, for the past few years, the Club has kept a close eye on the decentralized finance market. But, if the Club is to keep the money in the form of cryptocurrency and make the wager, is that a wise choice? Should they keep the money in crypto form?

Watford’s Possibly Exciting Cryptocurrency Earnings Forecast

Simply put, if the money is kept in the form of cryptocurrency, the £5 million could theoretically be worth nothing in the future. While that scenario is virtually impossible, what is important to mention is that this theoretical gamble, like all bets, could end up costing Watford heavily (for the Club, millions of pounds). This is also the case when someone invests in stocks or puts money partially out of their control.

The hierarchy at Watford, of course, are not blindly putting their sponsorship money in the cryptocurrency market and just hoping for the best if that is the path they have chosen. Lots of analysis and research would have been done in deciding to accept the sponsorship money in the form of cryptocurrency and not transferring it to fiat money immediately.

The Club are taking a long-term view of the cryptocurrency market if they make the decision to hold the cryptocurrency. In a three-month span this year, the price of one Bitcoin crashed from over £45,000 to just over £20,000. If Watford are taking a short-term look at the cryptocurrency market (as other cryptocurrencies followed similar behavior as Bitcoin), all they will see is risky volatility. What will happen to the value of cryptocurrencies on a day-to-day basis is anyone’s guess.

If Watford are looking to make quick returns on a cryptocurrency investment, then that would be poor, risky money management. If Watford are only aiming to cash out in the distant future, then such a gamble is more reasonable to make.

On January 1^st, 2010, one Bitcoin was worth seven pennies. Two years later, £3.83. Two years later, £559.64. Two years later, £315.59. Two years later, in 2018, £9,742.46. The following year, £2,810.69. On January 1^st, 2020, one Bitcoin was worth £5,221.52. At the time of writing, the value of one Bitcoin is £23,523.19 (note: exchange rates are using present exchange rates from Bitcoin to US dollar, then US dollar to British pounds. Source of Bitcoin prices mentioned before is linked here). Even with the value of Bitcoin (and many other major cryptocurrencies as they tend to follow similar trends to Bitcoin) being extremely volatile, in the long run, the one clear direction it has gone in is up.

Such trends are expected to continue in the long run. Short-term volatility is impossible to predict, so Watford would be foolish to take such a near-sighted approach. The long-run value of Bitcoin is expected to increase by many experts. A recent article by Forbes maintains a super-bullish view on Bitcoin. While mentioning many sources who are extremely optimistic about the future of cryptocurrency, they also cited analyst Vetle Lunde of Arcane Crypto Research who predicts, like many other experts, that the price of one Bitcoin will exceed $300,000 (£218,000) by the end of 2025. If that 2025 price prediction comes true (this is a hypothetical scenario, not at all a fact/guarantee), the £5 million will be worth, if all in Bitcoin, nearly £50 million. Whether this scenario unfolds as predicted (or anywhere near the prediction) remains to be seen and is impossible to precisely forecast. Bitcoinprice.com also shows lots of positive price predictions by experts in the field.

Still, there are no guarantees in the cryptocurrency world. The experts can be wrong as they have sometimes been in the past. If the value of cryptocurrencies were guaranteed to go up, everyone (and every team) would have their money in it. So yes, there is a chance the £5 million, even in the long term, loses value. But, if the Club has elected to keep the money in the form of cryptocurrency, it is not impossible to understand why. There is considerable risk involved, though any bet made would have been carefully calculated. Nonetheless, this is a path the Club should continue to actively reconsider if they have already started walking down it.

Why the Potential Gamble Is Probably Not Worth It

Even if in the long run, the prices of cryptocurrencies go up, Watford cannot become a crypto hedge fund with a football team as a money-making side business. Especially considering the massive financial losses from the COVID year, having money now is better than gambling money in an infant market for later. £5 million up-front is a sum hard to turn away from.

What the COVID campaign for football also showed is that there is no way to predict when a financially-harmful event will suddenly occur. If Watford were to keep the money in Bitcoin and a COVID-esque event abruptly happened again and money needed to be withdrawn, even in the long run, there is a solid chance the value of Bitcoin in the given moment will be less than what it presently is. There is no way to predict the market cycles for the times fiat money will spontaneously be needed.

The bottom line is players need to be paid in real money. The Club needs real money. The future of cryptocurrencies is exciting and could maybe lead to lots of regret for those who did not hop on the train. Regardless, the Club, especially for now, need to be in a place where they know their funds and can rely on an exact monetary value at any given time. Who knows when the Club will need this £5 million? Who knows what the future of cryptocurrency truly holds? What we do know is necessary, now more than ever, is that financial certainty is pivotal to operating a football club.

If the hierarchy feels super confident in keeping the money in the form of cryptocurrency, then there is tremendous risk involved. But, as has been proven since 2012, Gino Pozzo and Co. are experts at managing the Club’s money, so fans can rest assured that they will choose the path which is the safest, and thus the best, for Watford Football Club.

Statistically Analyzing the Immense Impact Cucho Hernandez May Have at Watford

Last summer, Watford sold Luis Javier Suarez and Pervis Estupinan for a combined sum of over £20 million. Both players came to Europe via a Pozzo-owned club, found their way to Watford, but did not play any competitive minutes for the Club. The Hornets were able to make a tremendous profit on the two South Americans by loaning them out to increase their transfer value. Cucho Hernandez once appeared to be on the same path as Suarez and Estupinan. However, he now is getting the chance to shine at Vicarage Road, a gamble that has a solid chance at hitting the jackpot.

Cucho Hernandez Has Already Proven Himself Abroad

The Colombian turned 22 in April. Despite his young age, he has still already played considerable minutes across three La Liga campaigns. His top-flight campaigns came after a 16-goal, six-assist Spanish second-tier 2017/18 campaign with SD Huesca.

As he played a pivotal role in their promotion and Watford did not have any reason to recall him at the time, SD Huesca were able to keep hold of Cucho for the second year of the two-year loan. In 34 appearances, Cucho scored four goals and provided three assists. His goals came against Barcelona, Villareal, Valencia, and Real Madrid. He underperformed his Expected Goals (Xg) statistic by 8.18 goals. The statistic may appear worrisome at face value, though he was still a teenager in his inaugural major top-flight season. He can also take some credit for his high Xg statistic by having commendable positional awareness to be in the right spots in the first place.

The following season was much better for Cucho, who earned himself another La Liga loan, this time to RCD Mallorca. He missed the first 15 matches of the season with an injury, but in 17 starts, he scored five goals, overperforming his Xg statistic by 0.61. His impressive performances earned him yet another La Liga loan for the 2020/21 campaign, this time to a more noteworthy side.

Unfortunately for Cucho, his loan to Getafe was also blemished by injuries. Nonetheless, in 18 starting appearances, he scored twice and contributed three assists. His performances when fit were good enough for Getafe to reportedly want to keep tabs on whether extending his loan for another season was an option.

Now, Cucho is a part of Watford’s first-team preseason, scoring a goal in a friendly against Colchester United. He is destined to play a role in Watford’s Premier League return as the hierarchy feels the time is right for Cucho to finally get a chance at Vicarage Road.

Ideal Option Who Will Only Continue to Improve

How well Cucho will do in his inaugural Premier League season is not the easiest of predictions. Considering the number of other attacking options on the Hornets’ books, there is no shortage of competition for the starting positions. With the likes of Emmanuel Dennis and Joshua King arriving, the Watford hierarchy are making sure that if one player is out of form, there are multiple solid players ready to fill in. Cucho will want frequent starting minutes, as he received in La Liga, though that is not a guarantee. Regardless, he is destined to play a considerable number of minutes and has what it takes to earn a starting spot in multiple positions.

Even though Cucho has played the majority of his career as a centre-forward, he has also found success on the wings. In 17 career matches as a winger, he has scored six goals and provided four assists. With the Hornets’ left-wing starting role up for grabs and Ismaila Sarr set to miss time in January due to AFCON participation, Cucho has ample chances to claim minutes on the wings. He has already proven himself as capable of playing in wide positions.

If deployed centrally, he will provide a type of forward Watford desperately need. The Hornets will likely be on the back foot more often than not in the upcoming season, meaning they will need even their attackers to help out in defense. Cucho has already had plenty of experience playing for relegation-fighting sides, meaning he knows the type of defensive play he will need to provide when on the pitch.

Even last season, the statistics show Cucho is talented when it comes to tracking back. Of all forwards in the major five leagues last season, he was above the 90^th percentile for both pressures per 90 (minutes) and tackles per 90, including being in the 99^th percentile for tackles in the middle third of the pitch with 0.92 tackles per 90. He was in the 89^th percentile for blocks per 90.

Not only does Cucho guarantee an attacker who will bust his socks off to get back and defend, for he is also adept at spurring counterattacks. Considering the type of football Watford will need to play next season, including more counterattacks and less time on the ball in comparison to last season, such proclivities are needed throughout the starting eleven. He averaged 5.83 progressive carries per 90 last season, ranking in the 91^st percentile of forwards. This shows his ability to drop in deep, defend, and carry the ball forward to shift from defensive phases to attacking phases. Cucho’s above-par pace means he will be able to provide support for Sarr when the Club’s record-signing is bursting forward.

Cucho for sure has lots to work on. His true in-game finishing abilities are still something of a question mark. With lots of competition, considerable starting minutes is not by any means a guarantee. But when played, Xisco Munoz will know he has an attacker who perfectly encourages counterattacks while still always tracking back to defend when other teams are on attacking onslaughts. Sometimes strikers can be “luxury players” who only play as if their sole purpose is to score. Cucho provides much more, in necessary ways, than just a goalscoring threat. And if King, for example, claims the starting centre-forward spot and someone else claims the starting left-wing role, Cucho will be the perfect super-substitute to steady the ship or provide a spark later on in matches. If Cucho’s finishing abilities continue to improve, he could eventually become a consistent name in the starting eleven and amongst Watford’s top scorers, either in this season or in campaigns to come.

Watford May Have Found Their Next Scoring King

After countless transfer rumours arose surrounding potential strikers arriving at Vicarage Road ahead of Watford’s return to the Premier League, the Hornets finally seem to have their desired central-forward force. Emmanuel Dennis was brought in as a speedy attacker able to compete for minutes both centrally and out wide. Cucho Hernandez looks likely to finally make his Vicarage Road debut after four seasons on loan in Spain. 19-year-old Joao Pedro will look to add to his bright start in English football following a nine-goal Championship campaign. Troy Deeney will still want to play a big role in the Hornets’ first season back in the top flight if fitness and form permits. However, Joshua King, Watford’s most recent signing, is the likeliest to be the Club’s most prolific central-forward.

King’s Path to Royalty

The 29-year-old started his career in his home nation of Norway with Valerenga before moving to Manchester United’s youth setup in 2008. He debuted for the Red Devils as a 17-year-old in 2009 in the EFL Cup. His other Manchester United senior-squad appearance came three seasons later in a Champions League clash against Galatasaray.

He earned loan moves to Preston, Borussia Monchengladbach, Hull City, and Blackburn before ultimately being sold permanently to the latter. His first full season with Blackburn (the 2013/14 campaign) saw King score twice and provide six assists in 31 appearances. After a lackluster following season, Bournemouth secured his signature in a free transfer upon their promotion to the Premier League.

The gamble on King proved to be a masterstroke. In the 2015/16 campaign, King scored seven times and tallied four assists across 35 matches in all competitions. The following season saw King win the 2017 Gullballen – the best Norwegian footballer award – by scoring 16 goals in the 2016/17 Premier League campaign. He tremendously outperformed his Xg statistic that season by a margin of 5.18 goals.

He outperformed his Xg statistic again the following season, scoring eight league goals as well as providing three assists. His 12 goals in the 2018/19 top-flight campaign were noteworthy despite his slight underperformance in regard to the Xg statistic. King contributed six goals and four assists in Bournemouth’s relegation season.

He did not accumulate many minutes in the 2020/21 campaign as he was actively seeking a move away and was injured for much of the first half of the season before Bournemouth offloaded him to Everton for funds/wage relief. Under Carlo Ancelotti, King was viewed as a depth player, making 11 substitute appearances.

Across 172 career Premier League appearances, King has scored 48 goals and averages one goal contribution per 194 minutes. Watford securing his services in a free transfer comes just one summer after Bournemouth rejected a £13.5 million bid from West Ham United (according to Adam Leventhal of The Athletic) for his signature. He has also made 54 appearances for Norway, scoring 17 times.

Reliable Goal-Scorer Who Provides New Dimensions to the Attack

King is a proven Premier League goal-scorer, yet he is not in the swan song of his career either. Despite his disappointing recent campaign, there were many external factors contributing to the lack of playing time. When fit and settled at Bournemouth, he was consistently reliable and a threat to opposition backlines. Two double-digit goal seasons and four Premier League seasons with double-digit goal contributions provide proof he should do at least “well enough” at Vicarage Road.

Unlike younger strikers, his ceiling for success is capped, though his floor is higher. And, for lack of better terms, Watford “know what they are going to get” with King. He is not going to be the one to shock everyone and score 20 goals, but if played with consistency, he will more than likely, at the very minimum, come close to double digits.

In a system with Ismaila Sarr to his right, King may very well find himself scoring 10+ times if played frequently. King provides a pacey attacking option. Watford will need to play counterattacking football on many occasions next season, and between Sarr and King (and even Dennis depending on the role he will play), there is more than enough pace and talent to pose a threat to any backline, especially on counterattacks. Such pace in the center of the attack will be pivotal in supporting Sarr when he makes his blistering runs forward, and King will be the man in the box to receive Sarr’s service – deliveries that cannot frequently happen with slower forwards incapable of outpacing the defense’s retreat.

King is also characterized by his ball-carrying ability, allowing for fluidity in the attack and forcing the opposition backline out of shape. Xisco Munoz’s wide-focused attacking tactics in the promotion campaign typically took the form of fullbacks making runs forward and lots of attacking movements starting along the touchline. King offers a new dimension to Watford’s wide play, as the wingers will now be able to make more diagonal runs infield when King forces backline disorganization rather than having to stick close to the byline to receive the ball. If Deeney returns to his talented form of old, King would provide a perfect complement in a strike partnership (as Deeney historically performs much better alongside a quick, talented-dribbling partner as opposed to being the lone forward).

Whether Xisco opts for center-forward rotation on a match-by-match basis or gives King consistent starts remains to be seen. If utilized correctly – which means frequent starts – King will likely prove to once more be a reliable goal-scorer capable of assisting a team to steer clear of the drop.

Thoroughly Examining Each of Watford’s First Nine Signings of the Summer

When Watford achieved promotion in 2015, the summer transfer window saw them bring in upwards of 15 players to bolster the Club’s prospects of safety. The clear-out-and-replace approach is often risky, with a recent example of the method backfiring being provided by 2018/19 Fulham, who spent in the region of £100 million on new players just to ultimately be relegated. For the Watford of six years ago, the strategy worked. The Hornets have been similarly busy thus far in this transfer window, though this time, the focus is perfectly balanced between both the present and the distant future. With nine new names already through the door for the first team, and a handful of others destined for time with the youth ranks, now is the opportune time to analyze each senior-squad arrival before Watford have to offload names from their books.

Kwadwo Baah: 18-year-old Baah signed for Watford following an impressive campaign with Rochdale. The versatile attacker – who primarily lined up as an inverted left-winger – scored three goals and provided two assists in 30 League One appearances, averaging one goal contribution per 270 minutes. The youngster nearly moved to Manchester City in January until complications at the final stage of the transfer made the deal fall through. Considering other top clubs were vying for his signature, such as Bayern Munich and Juventus, bringing him in was wise business. Whether he will make an instant impact remains to be seen. The most likely scenario is he is loaned to a top-half League One or Championship side to further his development. Regardless of what league Watford find themselves in in the future, Baah is a player who will provide a significant talent boost when he is first-team ready.

Mattie Pollock: like Baah, Pollock’s arrival occurs with an eye on the distant future. Watford do not want to be left without a firm foundation if relegation occurs again. Pollock, a consistent starter for League Two Grimsby Town (when fit) last season and one of the fourth-tier’s best aerial defenders, may also only have a minimal impact at Vicarage Road this upcoming season. The 19-year-old will likely go on loan to a similar calibre side as Baah. With Ben Wilmot going to Stoke City, Pollock may be viewed as his long-term replacement. There is a chance Pollock stays for the next campaign despite limited minutes, however, as the Hornets currently only have four other senior center-backs.

Imran Louza: currently Watford’s most expensive signing of the summer by a considerable margin (costing around £8.5 million), the expectations for one of FC Nantes’ many phenomenal midfield products are high. The left-footed midfielder will likely occupy the advanced-left-midfield position if Xisco Munoz is to utilize the 4-1-4-1 variation of the 4-3-3 as he did with success in the final stretch of the recent promotion campaign. Louza has a good eye for goal while more notably being excellent at playing between the lines and transitioning defensive phases of play into attacking phases. The already-talented 22-year-old will only continue to improve and could very well be sold on for tremendous profit by Watford sometime in the future; that is the potential and ability Louza possesses.

Ashley Fletcher: the former Manchester United youth player joined Watford in a free transfer after his time with Middlesbrough concluded. His career has been stop-start, thanks to both injuries and poor patches of form. He was once amongst some of England’s most highly-rated attacking youngsters, earning an England U20 appearance. The high expectations were not met for the most part, though 20 goal contributions across all competitions in the 2019/20 season for Middlesbrough suggest Fletcher still has lots to offer if form is found. Averaging one goal contribution per 167 minutes over the past two campaigns, Fletcher will freshen up the Hornets’ attacking depth, albeit considerable starting minutes do not seem in the cards barring any significant, unexpected turn of events.

The Curious Case of Manchester United’s James Garner

Upon Watford’s relegation from the Premier League, the Club knew they would need to fill the holes left by departing stars. Abdoulaye Doucoure transferred to Everton before the season kicked off. The Hornets even announced on the official club website that Etienne Capoue handed in a transfer request. Will Hughes’ future at Vicarage Road was uncertain. And so, to alleviate the potential midfield crisis, the Hornets loaned in James Garner.

Garner’s Rise in Manchester

The England U20 international team player made his Premier League debut for Manchester United on February 27^th, 2019, playing in the final minute of a 3-1 victory against Crystal Palace. However, Garner seriously started to turn heads in the following campaign.

The now 20-year-old appeared in 10 Premier League 2 matches in the 2019/20 season. Despite playing in his preferred defensive-midfield position (a Michael Carrick-esque role), Garner scored eight times. This effectively proved that Garner was too talented to only be plying his trade at the Premier League 2 level, as any defensive midfielder scoring eight times in 10 matches is unheard-of. Thus, he frequently trained with the first team and even appeared in six matches with the senior squad.

His most notable performances, putting him on the radar of many clubs hoping to secure a signature such as his on a temporary basis in the future, came in the Europa League. He started three group stage matches and came off the bench in another. On the pitch, he showed tremendous discipline, intelligence, and technicality. This is when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s claim he could be the “next Michael Carrick” came back into the spotlight.

The Truth About Garner’s Time at Watford

The Hornets loaned in Garner without an option to buy on September 18^th. Watford viewed Garner as a player capable of filling a starting role vacated by a departure, the Red Devils determined a loan to a promotion-competing side offering starting minutes would be perfect for Garner’s development, and the player himself knew the value the loan could have. The season-long loan only lasted until January, but that is not to say Garner’s time at Watford did not show any signs of promise.

There were for sure parts to his game that required considerable improvement. The physical Championship style of play seemed to trouble Garner to start with. He did not always brim with confidence as he did in his senior appearances at Old Trafford. He occasionally tried holding onto the ball for too long or was indecisive.

Still, positive signs were present. In the matches where he was full of confidence, such as in Watford’s 3-2 victory over Coventry City, he played smart passes between the lines and made encouraging dribbles forward. Consistency at Watford was not his best friend, though saying his time at Vicarage was solely characterized by struggling to adapt to the second-tier style of play would be more than just harsh.

What must also be taken into consideration is how Vladimir Ivic’s tactics saw Garner (as well as other players) not playing in their strongest positions. In the 5-3-2 formation Ivic started the season with, the Carrick-esque role was not available for Garner. In Ivic’s experimented 4-4-2, there were no defensive-midfield roles. When Ivic called for a 4-1-4-1 against Birmingham City, Chalobah was given the defensive-midfield role while Garner played in a more creative-midfield position.

When Xisco Munoz was announced as head coach, Garner’s job as a frequent name in the starting eleven was taken away. Between Xisco opting for more experienced players (which also saw him drop Jeremy Ngakia and Ben Wilmot from the starting conversation) and Will Hughes’ return to full fitness, the prospects of Garner seeing considerable game time were dim. After the loan was terminated – a loan where Garner was not frequently played to his strengths, still showed need to improve, but portrayed signs of tremendous potential – he was sent to a club further down the Championship table.

Impressed at Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest wasted no time securing Garner’s services for the second half of the season. With the reputable Chris Hughton at the helm offering him consistent starter’s minutes in a 4-2-3-1 formation, the Red Devils were happy to let Garner continue to develop in the Championship.

Even though his time at Watford was decent but not jaw-dropping, his spell at Nottingham Forest saw an undeniable uptick in performances. This is likely a mixture of simply having more experience thanks to his time at Vicarage Road and finally playing in a system calling for him to start in his preferred, deeper-lying midfield role.

His performances were improved (except for a quiet match against, ironically, Watford), leading Garner to start 19 of his 20 games at Nottingham Forest, helping the team steer far clear of relegation despite their rough start to the season.