Watford currently find themselves in a very familiar situation: a sacked manager to the dismay of many fans, a disappointing end to the season, and significant concern about whether the squad will be “good enough” next season.
I think a majority of Watford fans would agree Tom Cleverley overachieved with Watford this past season, especially at the start. Some may disagree and believe sacking him was the right decision, and I understand (albeit not concur with) why people think so. It truly was a tale of two seasons: At the campaign’s halfway point, Watford sat in the playoff places. In the final 23 matches of the season, Watford were dead last in the form table. Some may attribute this to Cleverley not adapting to his conditions, complacency, or myriad other reasons. I believe that while there was for sure room to improve, the majority of the fault falls on the ownership for a January transfer window that neglected to address Watford’s pressing need for attacking-minded reinforcements. Either way, Cleverley is gone, Paulo Pezzolano has arrived, and the point of this article is to illustrate my ideal – yet realistic – summer transfer window. Pezzolano seems an exciting appointment – having achieved promotion in multiple countries including Spain last season – but I feel the necessary signings are the same regardless of who is currently in charge.
I first need to establish the following assumptions:
- Transfer expenditures similar to last season’s. Since relegation, Watford’s transfer expenditure has steadily declined, regardless of player sales. Transfermarkt suggests Watford spent roughly three million euros on transfer fees this past season, so this will be the ballpark estimate for how much Watford will spend this upcoming campaign. With the debt situation still far from resolved, the current ownership – as much as it pains me to say this – needs to be frugal.
- Imran Louza and Giorgi Chakvetadze depart, but Kwadwo Baah stays. Ahead of the 2024/25 campaign, Watford made ~30 million euros from transfer sales. Sales of Louza and Chakvetadze should be able to get Watford close to this sum yet again. I hope both stay, but player sales have always been a significant revenue source for Watford and I cannot foresee the ownership passing up on the opportunity to cash in when near-inevitable offers come knocking. While Baah is certainly going to have suitors if he seeks to leave, the Hornets seem to view Baah as untouchable. Considering Baah’s recent injury history, other teams may be a bit wary about signing Baah while Watford’s hierarchy will likely feel selling now will leave lots of potential profit on the table.
- Free transfers and loans will be the main source of arrivals. While I of course would like to see Watford splash the cash, I am trying to be realistic here. Even though I would not be shocked to see expenditures notably above the 3 million figure I previously mentioned as the ownership may back Pezzolano more heavily than they did Cleverley, I do not think eight-figure spending is a fair assumption. I hope to be proven wrong.
The Championship can be an outrageously unpredictable league. While supporters can always hope for promotion, relegation can sneak up out of nowhere – just ask the team up the M1 who allegedly assembled a “Championship super team” a couple of years ago. I think a fair expectation is for Watford to assemble a team that can potentially make a push up the table but, more importantly, is able to improve on the relegation form that recently swept over the team.
My Ideal – and Realistic – Transfer Window Hopes
Goalkeeper
I think many Watford fans were skeptical of whether Egil Selvik would solve Watford’s goalkeeping issues at first as any Udinese signing raises question marks. Fortunately, the Hornets’ dealings with Udinese in the January transfer window worked out. Selvik is a more-than-capable Championship goalkeeper. Beyond passing the eye test, the statistics proved Selvik thrived: in 16 matches, he conceded 5.4 fewer goals than expected.
The backup situation remains to be seen following Jonathan Bond’s departure. If Daniel Bachmann elects to stay at Vicarage Road, then not even a second option will need to be signed. Even if he does depart, Myles Roberts may get the job done as a backup after showing promising development during his first loan this past season. Regardless, a serviceable backup can very likely be found on a free transfer if necessary, with rumors suggesting Watford are interested in signing Bolton’s Nathan Baxter when his contract expires this summer.
Defense
Watford cannot afford to make the same mistake of aiming for free transfers that see players at the end of their careers arrive on presumably hefty contracts, as happened with Angelo Ogbonna. He featured just eight times. Free transfers with pricey wage demands are not as preferable as – and financially equivalent to – spending a little bit of money on a prospect who demands much lower wages. Kevin Keben showed promise when fit. Mattie Pollock has room to improve but gets the job done in the Championship and seems to be a great leader. If Watford are able to keep hold of James Abankwah for another year, with reports suggesting this is a real possibility, then Watford’s center-back situation leaves the squad with a promising young core. With Ryan Porteous set to come back from his loan to Preston North End, Watford would only need one or two more center-backs to come through the door. While an experienced option would be nice, pricy starters are not needed – a potentially expensive contract like Ogbonna’s should be avoided. Loans and free transfers should be focused on. But, rumors link 23-year-old Jamil Siebert with a potential move to Vicarage Road, so if the ownership is willing to spend, Watford would have one of the better defensive backbones in the division.
Regarding full-backs, Caleb Wiley is also reportedly in talks to have his loan extended one more season, and he would be an unquestionable starter down the left side if the extension comes to fruition. On the right, while some may disagree, I feel Jeremy Ngakia significantly improved this past season and solidified himself as a capable Championship starter. James Morris and Ryan Andrews provide decent backup options, but a free transfer or loan for a full-back who can play on both sides would put Watford in a much more comfortable position. Perhaps Joao Ferreira will return (assuming he is still under contract at Watford, though that is never a certainty considering how frequently players move between Watford and Udinese without an official announcement).
Again, while I wish Watford would spend loads in the transfer window revamping the entire lineup, I want to be realistic and acknowledge that when an area of the squad is good enough, it is unlikely to be highlighted by the current hierarchy as room for notable investment apart from a couple of no-fee transfers.
Summary: re-sign Abankwah and Wiley, bring in one or two center-backs on free transfers or loans (experience is a plus considering the relative youth of the defense), and sign one more versatile full-back option (can be on loan or free transfer).
Midfield
While I find the defense to not be a major cause for concern and thus I am not too worried if the ownership is “cheap” there when it comes to recruitment, the midfield is a different story. With Louza and Chakvetadze’s departures seemingly inevitable, a massive midfield gap will emerge, both in terms of creativity and reliability. Moussa Sissoko and Edo Kayembe actually had decent success in front of the net this past season, but their best performances came when they were pushed out of their natural midfield positions. This cannot be relied on in the upcoming campaign. Moreover, as was the case with Tom Dele-Bashiru as well, there was tremendous inconsistency in their performances. Unfortunately for Dele-Bashiru, his injury history, including in this past season, has not helped him significantly build on the promising form he displayed when he first broke into the Watford squad a few years ago. While I expect all three of them to stay – and they can certainly put in valuable shifts as rotation players – much more will be needed to fill the void left by the inevitable departures. Pierre Dwomoh, only 20 years old, was injured during the heart of the season, but hopefully, a full offseason will help him get fully up to speed and build on his limited Championship experience from this past season.
A central midfield of Sissoko, Kayembe, Dele-Bashiru, and Dwomoh is not enough. Starters and depth are needed. In my opinion, the most obvious move Watford should try and make is a free transfer for Hector Kyprianou. Watford have allegedly targeted him in multiple transfer windows (including this past January), so the fact the 23-year-old is available as a free agent makes signing him feel like a no-brainer. With 113 League One appearances under his belt and having captained Peterborough to lifting the EFL Trophy following a remarkable triumph against Birmingham City – with Kyprianou scoring a remarkable goal in the process – he has proven himself both as a leader and as a prime candidate for a player ready to take the step up to the Championship. Peterborough preferring to keep him until the end of his contract when they knew they could not recoup any money for his services shows the type of value Kyprianou provides. Whether he would be a certain starter or rotation player is unclear, but signing him seems like an obvious move that would at least answer the reliability question facing the center of the pitch. If I posted this article yesterday, I might have appeared more prophetic, but rumors claim Kyprianou to Watford is already a done deal. Rumors often do not pan out, but I am hopeful, all things considered, that Watford will indeed announce this move upon the official expiry of his contract.
Even if the four midfielders I assumed stay do in fact stay and Kyprianou arrives, the creative-midfielder role still needs to be addressed. While, as mentioned, Kayembe performed well on the goalscoring front when put in the more attacking positions, this often was at the cost of sacrificing defensive duties. While not a bad backup option to have, Watford will need someone with superior dribbling, a keen eye to find attackers, and better knowledge of how to balance offensive and defensive duties. I have not yet suggested Watford sign a player from Udinese, and it is not a true Watford transfer window prediction without at least one sister-club arrival. So, assuming Watford keep up this trend, I hope one of the names they are looking at is Simone Pafundi. Entering the final year of his Udinese contract, the 19-year-old did not make a major impact at Udinese this past season despite impressing in the Swiss Super League when out on loan the prior campaign. Boasting a robust youth international career for Italy and even debuting for the Azzurri’s senior side at just 16 years old, extending his contract to 2027 and sending him on loan to Watford would provide the perfect opportunity to boost his value to help Udinese in the future and benefit the Hornets in the present. All of this is extremely speculative and contains many ifs, but this is a move I would like to see happen and think makes sense for all parties.
I am likely being too optimistic and thus violating my rule of trying to be realistic, but I nonetheless think this is an ideal position for Watford to loan in a promising young player from a first-tier club. Talented attacking midfielders often cost a premium, so a loan for a prospect, whether from Udinese or a Premier League side, would provide Watford a cost-effective option with high potential upside. Watford have been linked with a move for Catalin Cirjan from Romanian side FC Dinamo following a successful first season after his transfer away from Arsenal’s U21s. His profile (recently on a Big Six team) and attacking mindset match the type of player I hope Watford target.
Summary: sign Kyprianou or a similar player on a free or low-cost transfer, loan in an attacking-minded midfielder from a first-tier club, or be prepared to spend (an exciting talent like Cirjan should do the trick).
Attack
For the other positions, I tried my best not to break my assumptions, hence why I tried to avoid putting forward transfer ideas that required proper fees. That is intentional. While Watford will hopefully spend notably more than the three million euros I previously mentioned on transfer fees, if spending is to be capped, then all of that spending needs to go towards a striker. I think most Watford fans would agree a proper striker is the number one need. Vakoun Bayo was Watford’s top scorer with 10 goals, and he will not be at Vicarage Road next season. Kayembe and Sissoko were second and third with eight and six goals respectively. Mileta Rajovic is returning from loan, but most Watford fans would agree he is not the immediate answer to the goalscoring problem. I felt he got a bit more criticism than he deserved while at Vicarage Road the first time around, but he seemed to be better used as a super-sub rather than a consistent starter prior to his loan.
This is not to say Watford’s attack does not have some promising aspects. If I am correct about Baah staying, that would be a huge boost: the Hornets played significantly better when he was on the pitch than when he was injured. He has that get-out-of-your-seat factor only a few players in the Championship have. With remarkable dribbling skills, tremendous speed, and a good final ball that will only improve, a reliable center-forward could very easily see Baah accumulate double-digit assist tallies in the upcoming campaign. With a powerful shot and eye for the back of the net, more experience will see him notably increase his goal tally too (potentially double-digit as well – he scored four Championship goals this past season despite only playing 35% of possible Championship minutes).
Rocco Vata and Mamadou Doumbia are also promising young talents who I expect to notably improve next season. Vata showed he is a threat to score from anywhere and may even be able to help solve Watford’s creativity gap in the midfield depending on Pezzolano’s demands. Doumbia, just 19 years old and with lots of unknowns when initially signed, displayed he has the makings of a well-rounded center-forward. He should get considerable playing time, but he cannot be expected to score ~15 goals next season. 21-year-old Jorge Hurtado is set to return from his loan to the Greek second tier where he scored 11 times in 20 matches, but previous unsuccessful loans in League Two and the MLS suggest he is not yet in a position to play a major role next season.
Thus, Watford desperately need a center-forward if they want to avert the form that haunted them in the second half of the past campaign. Whether it be Pezzolano or the best manager in the world, improving form dramatically without a new striker would be a near-impossible task. One name that comes to mind as a fitting signing – who would also be economically sound – is Brenner from Udinese. Yes, another Udinese player. Rumors linked him with a move to Columbus Crew (the same club Cucho Hernandez was sold to, so it makes sense as the Pozzos already have a relationship with the MLS side), but so far, nothing has materialized. Having paid in the range of eight figures for his services, the Pozzos may want to keep him in their system a bit longer. He has not found success in Italy, but having watched him play in the MLS, he fits the bill for a lot of what Watford would be looking for. With 18 goals and 6 assists in 29 regular season appearances in his most recent full MLS campaign, Brenner definitely has what it takes to thrive in the Championship. Unfortunately, he may be a bit too good to want to join. Nonetheless, he would be my ideal signing (and potentially allow funds to be used elsewhere).
More realistically, there is no one Udinese would be willing to provide who would want to join Watford or be beneficial to Watford in front of the net. So, whatever funds are available need to be spent. After spending a couple of months in the Czech Republic, players such as Prince Adu (Vydra’s teammate at Viktoria Plzen) or Slavia Prague’s Tomas Chory strike me as players who fit the price target and could make for intriguing signings. While Watford might not have any interest in the Czech market, I think Watford need to at least prioritize someone with goals to their name in the past season rather than speculate on a loanee from a Big Six team. As nice as it would be to uncover a hidden gem for a bargain like Vata, that cannot be relied on. Spend the money on as much of a guarantee as possible, which is obviously easier said than done, but not spending at all will certainly minimize chances of success.
If Watford are somehow able to loan in a player like Brenner – a proven goal scorer who just needs a change of scenery – then the money should be spent on a wide player (or creative midfielder as already discussed). As mentioned, Baah’s injury made Watford’s threat from wide positions nearly non-existent. Vata can play out wide as a true winger but is often more effective from central positions. Otherwise, the only other winger Watford have under contract is Tom Ince. Clearly, at least one more signing is needed. A loan for a youngster from a major club makes a bit more sense for this position as it is not as detrimental to Watford if the loan does not pan out. An experienced wide signing would also be ideal, both for depth and ensuring there is not too much reliance on youth. 25-year-old winger Dennis Politic of FC Dinamo was also mentioned as a potential transfer target, and having played in England in the past, he could potentially be a useful, yet cheap, acquisition.
Summary: spend money on a center-forward, loan in a wing-capable prospect, and bring in one more experienced attacker for free or a small fee.
I know the transfer window is complex and my assumptions may quickly be proven wrong. I know that most of my predictions, if not all, may not come true as I do not have a crystal ball, I do not know what goes on behind the scenes, and I have no idea what the true finances look like – none of us do (the Swiss Ramble can provide a good idea but cannot consider all of the ownership’s many accounts). While Watford hopefully land a billion-dollar advertising deal tomorrow, the reality is it would be overly optimistic to expect spending trends notably different from last year. While keeping sight of the practicalities of how the transfer window will be approached, I just hope the manager is listened to and the ownership does not insist on placing too much pressure on the youth. Whether it be in the academy or certain first-team members last season, Watford have no shortage of talented young players, but too much pressure and reliance on too thin of a squad would be harmful to both their development and Watford’s success. A team that is one injury away from devastation makes for a prime relegation candidate in next year’s Championship.
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